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View Diary: Finally...Prez Obama's Clear Statement on Egypt (213 comments)

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  •  There are differences (8+ / 0-)

    For one thing, Ahmedinejad actually really does have a deep base of support, especially among rural-urban migrants in Tehran.  He may have stolen the election, but it's a different matter to steal 10 percentage points than 30 or 40.  

    Also, Mubarak is boxed in by the US, EU and Arab States.  Egypt is totally dependent on imports and cannot sustain any sort of economic embargo for any period of time.  Iran is far more self-sufficient to begin with, and is surrounded by trading partners who will break embargoes like Iraq. Turkey and Azerbaijan.  Egypt borders only Sudan and Libya, who can't really help them much.  Israel wouldn't dare support Mubarak openly. Netanyahu seems to take special glee in insulting Pres Obama, but even if he doesn't fear the US, direct Israeli support for Mubarak would be so poisonous to the Egyptian people it could never stand.  So if Mubarak gets violent and holds on, the next step is an embargo that would quickly bring a collapse.

    And perhaps most importantly, Mubarak may be a dictator, but he has both political (and I suspect personal) limits to the sort of violence he is willing to inflict on civilian crowds. Ahmedinejad was never under the same constraints.  

    "Die Stimme der Vernuft ist leise." (The voice of reason is soft)

    by ivorybill on Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 07:20:12 PM PST

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