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View Diary: Organizing recall in Wisconsin (281 comments)

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  •  This is plausible. But, to be realistic about it (11+ / 0-)

    you can't scatter your efforts in all 8 districts.

    First, Dems need to win a net of 3 to regain control of the Senate.  Of the 8 GOP districts, only 3 are realistic pick-up opportunities based on the 2008 vote.  Several of these districts were ones in which the Democrats failed to field a candidate.  Moreover, and this is key here, you have one Democrat who could be vulnerable to recall themselves.  Therefore, unless there has been some dramatic change in these districts in the past 2 years, there is a battlefield of 4 districts that I would consider to actually be in play, and one would have to run the table here in order to win control.

    Now, that said, I do think this is plausible after actually looking at 2008 election results, but any effort here would have to face the fact that it would have to be well-run and couldn't afford to drop any of these races.

    And, to throw in a little bonus for all this effort, I would note that the legislature controls the redistricting process in Wisconsin.  A win in this would pay a big dividend there as well.

    The districts I would consider to be in play are 8, 18 and 32 on the R side and 12 on the D side.  The margins in the R seats are around 1000, 200 and 2500.  The D seat was won with a margin of about 2100.  Based on the numbers above, this effort would require somewhere around 52,000 signatures across the 3 GOP districts.  That's not an especially easy task, as you'd be looking at needing around 80,000 or so minimum to ensure you have enough that are valid.  It's clearly doable, but one shouldn't underestimate the challenge involved.

    •  Olsen could also be vulnerable (6+ / 0-)

      Luther Olsen's district is actually pretty much a swing district, however Olsen has never faced opposition because he is known as a moderate.  If he votes for this bill, obviously that changes.  

      Also, it would actually make more sense to recall some of the senators who just won in 2010 (after January 2012 of course), and leave the ones who are already up in 2012 alone.  This gives you more targets.  

      •  The problem with going after the 2010 class is (2+ / 0-)

        two-fold. First, you have the same issue you have with Walker himself -- the year waiting period.  Second, you lose the chance to do this this year and get control now, which would have the effect of (a) killing the bill and (b) helping Dems with redistricting.  Better to go now than to wait, in my opinion.

        The info on Olsen is helpful; I'm no expert on WI state politics. Thanks.

        •  Here's why I'm thinking about 2010 class (0+ / 0-)

          Republicans are planning on introducing some constitutional amendments on tax increases.  They would need to be passed by two consecutive sessions of the legislature.  

          Obviously, if Dems take back the Senate in 2012, that kills those constitutional amendments.  That's why I would be in favor of also going after the 2010 class.  

          At this point, I am pretty much taking for granted that the union bill is pretty much going to pass eventually, so I am really thinking more about making sure that bad policies can be undone.  

          •  That's where my argument about (2+ / 0-)

            redistricting comes into play. If you let the GOP continue to control the legislature, you will be playing on a far more uneven playing field in 2012.  That's not to say that there isn't merit in the thought of a 2010 class recall effort -- there is -- but recall now gets you control now and makes it easier to maintain it.  Postponing any effort into next year means that you will not only ensure that the bill passes eventually, but that the GOP will redraw the House and Senate districts.  

        •  I don't think you will be able to recall in time.. (0+ / 0-)

 kill this thing.  Remember that the teabaggers will be trying to recall our guys, too, and if this standoff lasts 4 months (the time it takes to do this), then the Dem Senators may not be looking so rosy holding up the state's business.


          by LordMike on Sat Feb 19, 2011 at 10:25:12 PM PST

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          •  Rethink this (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Fear Mike, fear is what motivates if they know there is a very real possibility they will have to re-campaign and likely lose, votes will change. It's self preservation

            Try not to let your mind wander... It's too small and fragile to be out by itself.

            by mjcc1987 on Mon Feb 21, 2011 at 05:03:06 PM PST

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      •  We will be going after Olsen (6+ / 0-)

        Someone in my township ran into him yesterday morning at the Capitol and asked about the vote. Olsen said "WE GOT the VOTES." It was quite clear how Olsen was going to vote in the Finance committee.

        Olsen's office staff had previously said he was undecided. but I think that was just to keep the heat off of him. Olsen himself was never available.

        "We are slow to realize that democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ~ "Fighting Bob" - Robert M. LaFollette Sr.

        by Sand Hill Crane on Fri Feb 18, 2011 at 11:29:03 PM PST

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      •  Now (0+ / 0-)

        Can't wait a year. Now!

        Try not to let your mind wander... It's too small and fragile to be out by itself.

        by mjcc1987 on Mon Feb 21, 2011 at 04:59:31 PM PST

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