Skip to main content

View Diary: Oil Price Predictions Revisited (12 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Poll is out of it, as is your conclusion. (0+ / 0-)

    The average tarot deck reader is right more than once, hence they must all be excellent economists by your standards.

    Let's look at what he predicts - $100 to $200 = real specific, not!

    Then $200/bbl oil means $7/gal gas = error, loses all economist cred because he obviously hasn't bothered to learn how the petroleum industry works.  Read THIS

    That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

    by enhydra lutris on Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 03:39:08 PM PST

    •  So, he's been right multiple times... (0+ / 0-)

      And you call him a tarot reader.  That statement tells me more about you than what I already know about him.

      It is probably true that speculators and manipulators abound in the oil market, but the pricing mechanism has been consistent and by the behavior of that mechanism the correlation between price per bbl and the price at the pump will remain consistent.  $104/bbl WTI is translating to $3.50+ at the pump.

      The article you link to referred to oil prices at $42/bbl.  When I wrote the article a year ago, people claimed it couldn't happen again and look here we are!  

      The key is that we need to acknowledge this fact and actually make choices about our future instead of leaving it to the whims of the oil industry.

      --Mr. President, you have to earn my vote every day. Not take it for granted. --

      by chipoliwog on Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:29:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You don't read very well, do you. I never said he (0+ / 0-)

        was a tarot reader, and in the diary I linked to it is perfectly clear that the $42/bbl is an example, a hypothetical.

        the correlation between price per bbl and the price at the pump will remain consistent.

        consistently variable.

        Do you know what the cost component per gal of $200 WTI is for a pure refiner?

        That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

        by enhydra lutris on Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 04:57:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually His Prediction Was Wrong... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      enhydra lutris
      1. Oil will cost over $100-200/barrel in the next 10-15 months because of demand by OPEC countries

      "because of demand by OPEC countries" is NOT the reason.  The reason is speculation due to turmoil in and near major oil producing countries.

      •  Yeah, I decided to let that go rather than (0+ / 0-)

        argue about it.

        That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

        by enhydra lutris on Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 09:31:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  if you follow the oil drum at all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chipoliwog

        they have tons of graphs showing that, in fact, many oil producing countries tend to consume a growing % of their oil as oil export income filters back into the local economy and translate into more economic demand. thus, less oil available for export.

        flat oil production + increased demand = price spikes. throwing revolutions and speculation on top of that makes it worse, but they're not what's driving the fundamentals. the reason the price came down in 2009 was because global demand plummeted down to where flat global supply was adequate.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site