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View Diary: FL-Pres, PA-Pres: middling numbers for Obama in two more states (91 comments)

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  •  FL is going to be tough, but I don't (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RFK Lives

    see PA going for the GOP unless Obama is suffering a 1980-1984-1988-style defeat. Put it this way, if Obama is losing PA, he is also losing MI, WI, MN, IA, CA, NJ, NH, and maybe even MD.

    •  Bill was right about this: (0+ / 0-)

      it's the economy, stupid.  If unemployment and gas prices aren't appreciably down by next fall, even Trump has a fair chance.

      •  They will be down enough, I think (0+ / 0-)

        Even if unemployment is in the 8% range, as it's not near 10%, voters will see that. Also, as long as some job growth continues, people will see that.

        The only way Obama is losing PA is if he is doing as miserably as Michael Dukakis did in 1988.

        •  It's too early, but... (0+ / 0-)

          I don't see Obama winning a thread-the-needle election like the ones Bush won.  Either he wins big or he loses. If the economy turns around, and/or the GOP nominates th wrong person, Obama wins FL, PA, and maybe even Ohio, and all we're watching on election night is the down-ticket races.  Like Reagan and Clinton, he could actually win more states (albeit probably by lesser margins) than he did the first time.

          If the economy is still sluggish (and it doesn't have to actually be bad, it just has to "feel" like it's bad - just ask GHWB), and unemployment is at or above 8%, it creates a nasty climate for an incumbant president.

          If the GOP nominates Romney, he will run as the no nonsense professional who can run this country like a business, which appeals in principal to a lot of economically distressed Americans.  I actually think if he were the clear nominee, a lot of Americans would warm up to him.  He's attractive, calm and well spoken, with a postcard family.  And,...unlike Bush II, he has been very successful in business.

          Under this scenario, FL and OH are gone, and the GOP competes in NH, PA, MI, WI, and across the southwest.  

          I have lived in PA my whole life, and seen the last 9 presidential elections here.  Since 1988 PA voted twice for Clinton, once for Gore, and two more times basically against Bush.  While Obama won here in 2008, it was primarily because of Bush hatred.  Obama is not a "typical" Dem candidate for PA.  He could never be elected Governor here.  PA is Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Alabama in the middle, as the saying goes.  And a black man has a hard time getting elected in Alabama, and even in Pittsburgh.  We've never had a black gov or senator.  Remember, Hillary cleaned Obama's clock here, even after she had no reasonable chance to win the nomination.  In a lot of ways we're much more like WV than New Jersey.

          Don't kid yourselves, under the right scenario, Obama could lose PA.  And, that right scenario is at least plausible this far out.

          •  Democratic fortunes in PA hinge on (2+ / 0-)

            the four corners of Erie, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. The Alabama part of PA is Republican except for Harrisburg city and State College. Obama has no chance in Central PA.

            But an increasingly key part of Democratic success is suburban Philadelphia, the only part of PA where population is growing. If Obama wins Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, Romney can't win PA.

            For Romney to win PA he will need to post numbers not seen by a GOP candidate in suburban Philadelphia since 1988. Bush failed to do so when he ran in 1992. Dole, Bush II, and McCain failed to.

            I don't see how the GOP carry absent a total collapse of the Democrats' in the Philly suburbs.

    •  The #s in PA are roughly comparable to FL (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah, Dump Terry McAuliffe

      I agree that PA is a must state for Obama, which means that the PA #'s are, arguably, more troubling than FL.  I focused on FL b/c I live here.

      Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?

      by RFK Lives on Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 08:47:06 PM PDT

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    •  I live in NJ. Believe me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      Obama's not losing NJ. Our calorically enhanced Repuke Guv that the village just LOOOOOVES, however, will probably be booted out in 2013.

      But I know what you're saying & I agree.

      A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

      by METAL TREK on Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 11:34:08 PM PDT

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