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View Diary: NY-26: Jane Corwin (R) leads by just five in new poll (23 comments)

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  •  Winner-take-all... (0+ / 0-)

    ...but I'm deeply, deeply pessimistic about this race going to Hochul, for a number of reasons.

    First, the Democratic GOTV operation is pathetic around here these day, especially over here on the Monroe County (Rochester) side of the district. The Monroe County Dems are in disarray, torn by a divisive Dem vs. Dem race for mayor of Rochester (spoiler alert: the Democrat won) and just generally disorganized and floundering. The race for Monroe County Executive is now just seven months away, and if we even have a Democratic candidate to run against the increasingly unpopular GOP incumbent, it's news to me. (They ran nobody at all, not even a figurehead, four years ago, and lost what would have been a good shot at control of the County Lej as a result.)

    Second, the district is historically very Republican. In a special election, the turnout will be heaviest from the ruby-red rural precincts between Buffalo and Rochester, and probably very light in the areas the Democrats need most, closer to the two big cities at either end. And absent a strong GOTV operation in Monroe County, well...

    Third, Corwin's been on TV first and heaviest, with slimy ads pinning Hochul to "Obamacare" and "Nancy Pelosi." That's catnip to the rural voters in Genesee and Orleans counties who'll swing this election. Hochul? Almost invisible on TV so far.

    Fourth, he's Crazy Millionaire Jack Davis. The Republican voters will flirt with him when the pollsters call, but they'll come home to Corwin in the end. But the "moderate" Democrats in the district will hang with Davis, at least in numbers large enough to wipe out whatever chance Hochul has.

    My pessimistic call in the end? Corwin 40, Davis 33, Hochul 27. Hope I'm wrong...

    So this is DK4, eh?

    by ipsos on Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 11:05:35 AM PDT

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    •  Actually there is a pretty strong ground game (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Woody, Odysseus

      Phone banking and door to door have been going on for several weeks now.  I have been phoning several nights each week and MCDC put out a call 2 days ago for senior to senior phone banks.  There is a campaign office in Greece also if you want to help.  you can email me at donna.mclean5atgmail.com if you want more info on how to get involved

      Not being able to do everything is no excuse for not doing everything you can. - Ashleigh Brilliant

      by dmac on Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 11:33:09 AM PDT

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      •  That's good to hear (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not on that side of the district (NY-29 over here on the east side), so I'm obviously not seeing the ground game as closely as you are. This would be a great pickup if we can get it.

        Intended to be a factual statement.

        by ipsos on Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 12:17:16 PM PDT

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