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View Diary: Geographers predict Osama's location (103 comments)

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  •  We all, not just the GOP, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sun dog, grover, JohnInWestland

    are subject to a certain amount of scenario building based upon bad assumptions.  I am a bad fisherman, so I have some experience with this.  I find that I tend to make assumptions about where fish are likely to congregate, what baits that may entice them and what time of day they prefer to feed that are simply uninformed.  

    When you look at the cave assumption, it demonstrates the same kind of flawed thinking.  How do you get food in a cave?  What about news?  Is it easier to get lost in a city among lots of people or alone in the wilderness?

    Right now, assumptions are being made about what the Pakistanis may or may not have known.  I think these are easily just as flawed.  If we didn't know where bin Laden was, why do we think they did?  Why would bin Laden have broadcast his whereabouts to the Pakistanis?  If for no other reason, he has no idea the extent that the CIA is infiltrated into the Pakistani military or Government.  I suspect the Pakistanis have no idea simply because he wouldn't have risked letting them find out.  

    •  John Kerry yesterday (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      milton333, murphy, Matt Z

      mentioned "misdirection" from Pakistan since he's been dealing with them.   He doesn't want to light any extra fires but he clearly believes that some part of the government knew where Bin Laden was and kept going on about caves out in the boondocks as a ruse.  

      The government of Pakistan is weak and generally hangs by a thread.  The most probably explanation I've heard so far is that they were flat-out threatened into harboring Bin Laden.

      And in a couple of weeks, in my area, the Largemouth Bass will begin hanging out around structure near the shore.  :)

      Forget it, he's rolling.

      by Sun dog on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:43:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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