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View Diary: AZ-Pres: Obama surprisingly strong in Arizona (104 comments)

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  •  Best Case Scenario (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    I still hope for this best case scenario for Obama in 2012:

    Obama wins all the 2008 Obama states.

    Obama flips all the 2008 "Light Red" states, where he lost by less than 10%.:  SC, GA, MO, SD, ND, MT, AZ

    Obama flips TX and MS.

    •  ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      Obama is not going to win Mississippi or Texas. The other states, though, he could make a reasonable play for. Alaska is a place I think he could compete. Polling before McCain picked Palin showed him competitive there. Imagine if Palin was the nominee! She's reviled in Alaska now. Obama would win there.

      However, Palin would win Texas and Mississippi.

      21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Wed May 04, 2011 at 02:00:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      TX is probably too much but I hope they at least try if circumstances allow. MS on the other hand I'm not seeing at all.

      •  The problem with Mississippi (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, ChadmanFL, GradyDem

        is that winning would require winning a portion of the white vote that just doesn't seem possible unless the Republican candidate is really nutty and/or there are potential Democratic voters that just aren't showing up. The source of the Democratic strength in the state, such as it is, comes from black voters, who already show up at higher rates than you might expect given the demographic conditions. I guess if, come July, it looks like he's going to steamroll the Republican candidate no matter who it is, he could see just how many white Democratic voters there are in the state, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ignored it entirely. There are plenty of other more obvious targets, including Texas, which I still think he will make a play for.

        •  Mississippi is a long way off (0+ / 0-)

          But I think it could be won by Democrats down the road maybe a decade or two from now.  The vast majority of children in Mississippi are black.  Their % of the voting base will increase greatly in the coming decades.  I believe they could even become a majority some day according to projections.  

          •  Obama in Mississippi (0+ / 0-)

            I realize that there are bigger fish to fry, but part of me wants the Obama campaign to set up shop in Mississippi as a test case for trying to turn out Democratic-leaning voters in very red states. Were he to win or come very, very close despite it not doing that much better than last time, it could blow the lid wide open for Democrats in such states.

    •  I think up through the second part is plausible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      I suspect only someone incompetent as Trump could bleed Texas or Mississippi, however. In those states, you'd need moderate Republicans bolting to Obama and that's a decent stretch. As for the "light red" states, in the case of a Palin or Bachmann, I could see that. Otherwise, I think against a Pawlenty/Romney/Daniels, the first sentence is really about the best possible.

      For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

      by andyroo312 on Wed May 04, 2011 at 04:59:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think it'd take Palin or Bachmann (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG

        To flip Missouri, Montana, Arizona, or Georgia.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed May 04, 2011 at 07:24:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Me neither (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, TofG

          I suspect Romney could lose Georgia and Gingrich could lose the other three, with the possible exception of red-trending Missouri.

          Republicans' big problem in Georgia and Arizona is that as the minority population grows out of proportion to the population as a whole, it is becoming no less partisan - in fact, the opposite may be true, and voter turnout among those groups jumped up in 2008 without the Obama campaign seriously targeting either state.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 04, 2011 at 08:44:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  no (0+ / 0-)

          it would take unemployment at about 6%

    •  I could see MO flipping before those (0+ / 0-)

      other states. I could see Obana then winning AZ, MT, and maybe even GA. But GA is hard for the reasons I wrote above. After GA I could see TX flipping. Then maybe the Dakotas. SC and MS would be last. But if Obama is remotely competitive in the Dakotas, TX, SC, GA, AZ, or MS, he is probably headed toward a landslide victory.

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