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View Diary: AZ-Pres: Obama surprisingly strong in Arizona (104 comments)

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    Some presidents win big because they win over swing voters instead of turning out large numbers of voters in their party. In 2006, Ed Rendell won PA-6 by more than 30 points but it was not because Rendell turned out all the Democrats there, he was very popular with the independents who lived there. At the same time, Jim Gerleach (R) won reelection in PA-6. In 2008 though, Obama excited the Democratic base which caused the Democratic voters to turnout and vote Democratic for downballot offices.

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