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View Diary: Appearances can be deceiving: A Regression Analysis of the 2006 MD-04 Primary (33 comments)

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  •  Was wondering that myself (0+ / 0-)

    Too lazy to do it but now I did. Interestingly, County has a high p-squared and White remains the most statistically significant variable:

    Regression equation:
        Edwards = 0.471 - 0.034(County) + 0.003(White)
           - 0.001(Black)

       Variable     Coefficient      SE     Two-tailed P
        County         -0.034      0.024       0.152
        White          0.003      < 0.001      0.000
        Black          -0.001      0.000       0.105

       Standard error of estimate = 0.077

       R-squared (coefficient of determination) = 0.640
          Adjusted coefficient of determination = 0.634

    R-squared doesn't improve that much from White+Black, either.  I used 1 for PG and 0 for MontCo.

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Tue May 10, 2011 at 07:43:55 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, okay. One more question-- what is the standard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson

      deviation of Edwards? Because one reason this works so well (just race accounting for 63% of variance is pretty good) is that there might simply not be much variance. Or are there lots of precincts that went more than 60-40 one way?

      •  64 went to Wynn by more than 60-40 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        terjeanderson

        (although the last was like .399 Edwards and a bunch were close to 40).  26 more went for Edwards by more than 60-40 (although again, some close).  So that means 90 went 60-40 or more one or the other way out of the 169 precincts.  Don't know if that counts as "lots".

        Standard deviation...even though I taught that in a summer class, I'm not sure I calculated it right, but pretty sure Edwards has a standard deviation of 0.126876317.  Again, I don't know if that's a lot by the standards of this sort of thing.

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Tue May 10, 2011 at 08:51:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  For a fun completely apples-to-oranges comparison (0+ / 0-)

          The standard deviation of Obama's performance in 2008 across the 50 states was 0.0954478927.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Tue May 10, 2011 at 10:02:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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