#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Was wondering that myself(0+ / 0-)

Too lazy to do it but now I did. Interestingly, County has a high p-squared and White remains the most statistically significant variable:

Regression equation:
Edwards = 0.471 - 0.034(County) + 0.003(White)
- 0.001(Black)

Variable     Coefficient      SE     Two-tailed P
County         -0.034      0.024       0.152
White          0.003      < 0.001      0.000
Black          -0.001      0.000       0.105

Standard error of estimate = 0.077

R-squared (coefficient of determination) = 0.640
Adjusted coefficient of determination = 0.634

R-squared doesn't improve that much from White+Black, either.  I used 1 for PG and 0 for MontCo.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]

• ##### Oh, okay. One more question-- what is the standard(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
terjeanderson

deviation of Edwards? Because one reason this works so well (just race accounting for 63% of variance is pretty good) is that there might simply not be much variance. Or are there lots of precincts that went more than 60-40 one way?

Loyal Democrat

[ Parent ]

• ##### 64 went to Wynn by more than 60-40(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
terjeanderson

(although the last was like .399 Edwards and a bunch were close to 40).  26 more went for Edwards by more than 60-40 (although again, some close).  So that means 90 went 60-40 or more one or the other way out of the 169 precincts.  Don't know if that counts as "lots".

Standard deviation...even though I taught that in a summer class, I'm not sure I calculated it right, but pretty sure Edwards has a standard deviation of 0.126876317.  Again, I don't know if that's a lot by the standards of this sort of thing.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]

• ##### For a fun completely apples-to-oranges comparison(0+ / 0-)

The standard deviation of Obama's performance in 2008 across the 50 states was 0.0954478927.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]

• ##### Not so bad actually. (0+ / 0-)

That means that you can identify about 80% of the precincts Edwards won and 85% of the precincts that Wynn won based on race alone.

Loyal Democrat

[ Parent ]

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