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View Diary: The Week in UFO Phenomenon: UFOs Over Disneyland (26 comments)

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  •  This isn't the world of UFOlogy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    malharden, G2geek, Larsstephens

    This is The Week in UFO Phenomenon which is not too willing to accept unidentified as probably alien, but this group is headed by a bona fide I know what I saw so it's not really a conspiracy to me.  These diaries make no claims they are just a fun place for people to look at things.

    Oh and 5% of sightings remain unidentified with no earthly explanation.

    Stick around join the group, and before you decide to allow the government to tell you what is reality go outside for a week and enjoy the night sky for an hour a day for a week.  

    Every moment in life contains an off ramp. Never be afraid to use it.

    by Adept2u on Wed May 11, 2011 at 07:53:56 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  No thanks (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adept2u, yaque, G2geek

      As a confirmed skeptic in this area, this is not to my taste.

      As for "I know what I saw," the answer is that as fallible human beings, we do not.

      Please do not accuse me of allowing the government to tell me what reality is.  I get mine from lots of sources.

      Enjoy.  I'll stay out of your way.

      Numbers are like people . . . Torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.

      by Actuary4Change on Wed May 11, 2011 at 08:50:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  here's how "I know what I saw" works. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm sure you know about all the usual errors such as confirmation bias.

        But there's another that is almost universal among humans:

        "Emotional intensity equals truth value."  

        In other words, "the more intense the feeling, the more that something is true."  

        Now of course there are all kinds of instances where that is correct, and it exists because it's had natural selection advantages over time.  And there is also the confound that if someone is told that something they perceived with their sober senses isn't real, they're going to protest strongly.

        Last but not least there's the confound that occurs by the routine insertion of the logical-NOT as a means of offsetting this phenomenon ("the stronger someone feels about something, the greater the likelihood that it's not true").  

        So when dealing with these kinds of puzzles that tend to generate strong feelings, one needs to exercise caution in both directions.  

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