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View Diary: WI-Sen: Herb Kohl announces retirement from Senate (315 comments)

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  •  Someone else would be a safer bet but... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, gabjoh, The Caped Composer

    I have this feeling Baldwin could win anyway. I think Dems will do well in Wisconsin in 2012. It feels to me like the equivalent of Sherrod Brown in Ohio (there was some concern about him being too liberal in 2006) or Al Franken in Minnesota (although the later might be a bad example since he barely won).

    A wild card: where will the state be on Scott Walker. I doubt he will be recalled, but his fate may play into what happens with this seat.

    •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

      Seems an awfully big risk when the party is already spread so thin.

    •  Franken (0+ / 0-)

      I think Franken is a good example in that he was seen as too liberal and squeaked by in a wave year. He has one advantage over Baldwin in that he had no prior voting record, so he can create a (more moderate?) voting record without being accused of flip-flopping. If elected, would Baldwin be able to pull off a reverse Gillibrand and tack to the center to set herself up for 2018?

      I don't think that Sherrod Brown is a good comp. His old district is D+5.

      SSP poster. 41, Dem-leaning Ind (-0.25, -3.90), CA-5

      by sacman701 on Fri May 13, 2011 at 10:30:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's reversed, actually (0+ / 0-)

        Tammy has political experience and knows how to strike a profile.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri May 13, 2011 at 10:41:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But wasn't Brown considered pretty liberal? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        I seem to remember when he got in there was some thought that he was too progressive for the state, especially running against an incumbent Senator.

        But your point about the difference in he and Baldwin's districts is a good one.

        •  Brown (0+ / 0-)

          I think much of that was convenience because people wanted Hackett.

        •  Eh, it's not a good one (0+ / 0-)

          No one is going to sit at home and compare PVI's but they will sit at home and remember if they have an impression of the candidate coming off as too extreme.  Brown doesn't because while he's aggressively liberal, he's 100% a populist and ensuring that policy framing is done in a manner that says, I'm doing this for you, makes his liberalness not seem as extreme.  This is why Baldwin will need to define herself immediately; she's not some Madison liberal yahoo, she's a progressive making sure that people in the middle and lower class don't keep getting screwed over by bankers.

          And with WI in it's current state affairs, this is something I think she can make happen.

          •  It isn't the PVI numbers themselves (0+ / 0-)

            But the record accumulated by representing that electorate.

            •  But what is that record? (0+ / 0-)

              What has Tammy Baldwin voted for that can be used against her in an ad? I can't think of much of anything specific. Everyone will who runs will be painted as a Madison liberal. Why not actually run one?

            •  and by talking about PVI (0+ / 0-)

              we show what electorate you represent really doesn't matter.  Brown had a near identical voting record in a D+5 seat as Baldwin in a D+15.

              Brown came off as a populist defending union folks in Akron, Baldwin comes off as a liberal Madison lesbian.  Hell, maybe that's what all this is about; not LGBT, black, white, straights, or PVI, it really comes down to where you come from and if you are able to translate ones extreme liberalism to the area they represent in a palatable manner.  People expect to find uber liberals in cities like Madison but finding a coal-miner in West Virginia whose for single-payer health care and gay marriage?  GTFO.

              •  That is where her sexuality (0+ / 0-)

                May come into it. Much harder for them to paint a straight white man from Akron as a extreme liberal. I hate that fact but sadly it is fact and we have to face up to it.

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