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  •  Good points, except that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koNko

    their pricing on iPhones and iPads is not at all out of line; in fact, isn't the iPad cheaper than many alternatives?

    The only thing I worry about is that Macs may be displaced by iPads to such an extent that they become a more expensive, niche product. Well, that and the CEO succession problem, of course.

    No company fires on all 8 cylinders (well, 4 1/2 if you're Microsoft, lol) forever, Apple has already had a good run. I think it will outlive me, though (I'm 62).

    Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

    by billmosby on Tue May 24, 2011 at 07:16:42 AM PDT

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    •  Tablets errode PCs but don't replace them (0+ / 0-)

      For internet or media consumption tablets are great but not really a replacement for apps requiring a keyboard, mouse and greater storage.

      I think that means an eventual errosion of PC market share and less choice (fewer OEMs, fewer models), and the opposite for tablets and handhelds which should find more users than PCs.

      But overall, prices come down over time as technology is commoditized and competition increases.

      In tablets it's a matter of time until Apple faces serious competition, most likely from the same players that compete with iPhone such as Samsung, hTC et al.

      So what I see is Apple and Microsoft trying to compete with Goggle and Social Networking sites for advertising and media related business.

      Handhelds are cheap because they are subsidized by phone companies who make it back in service fees. The handset OEMs have to make a profit from sales to the service providers.

      Apple has resisted commoditization by exclusivity, but the wall is cracking because to increase volume and sell in some markets were users normally have multiple accounts used in one phone or jailbreak locked phones, they have to sell to consumers on the open market. Potentially it means they can charge a higher premium for a new model but price errosion gets beyond control since there is no monopoly involved.

      Assuming that as a long-term growth model for Apple, I would expect them to eventualy compete by getting more revenue from selling software and and media tied to their software O/S (already is that way) and increase revenue from advertising (both Apple and Microsoft are trying to compete with Goggle which has nore than 60% market share in net ad revenues).

      Under such conditions, Apple face the prospects of having to use the hardware as a loss leader just as Sony, Nintendo, MS, et al do in Gaming Platforms (which are sold at a substantial loss as hardware).

      Goggle and Microsoft are already pure-play software companies and let others worry about the hardware. Apple has certian franchise because the sum of parts is attractive to a certian affluant segment of the market, but just as iPhone has lost share to Android, I would expect iPad to face increasing competition.

      I predict the novelty of a insanely great rectangular display with round corners will not last forever, could be why Jobs is so pissed at Samsung these days (but they are Apple's Flash Memory supplier).

      And what is the next big thing?

      What about my Daughter's future?

      by koNko on Tue May 24, 2011 at 10:15:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Apple is doomed, doomed! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        koNko

        Really, I have my doubts that it will long survive Jobs. And even if it does, it has always been more of a niche company than a company which desires to compete in all spaces. So says Jobs himself. I count myself blessed that its rise and....possible fall coincides with my own. I was about 28 when Apple surfaced (I bought an Apple II in about 1980, and my first Mac 4 years after that), am 62 now, and probably don't really even need to buy one more Mac- the 3 year old one I have will probably see me though to the end, if the longevity of ones I have owned before are any indication. But I'll probably get another one any year now anyway.

        Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

        by billmosby on Tue May 24, 2011 at 10:56:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Doomed? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          billmosby

          Hardly, but it will be interesting to see how they evolve in the next few years particularly when Jobs retires.

          Will his plan to clone himself work?

          What about my Daughter's future?

          by koNko on Wed May 25, 2011 at 04:59:56 PM PDT

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          •  I was trying to be funny. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            koNko

            The phrase was attributed to a tech columnist about 15 years ago; can't remember his name at the moment, although he still writes on tech quite a bit. I do remember the false quote, though. Sometimes a "bwahahahah..." is attached to it.

            Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

            by billmosby on Thu May 26, 2011 at 05:59:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This may interest you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              billmosby

              I read an interesting profile of Apple in Fortune this month that gives an indider's view of how they operate, which pretty much reflects my own experience working with them but also explained a lot.

              Unfortuately the full article is only available on the newstand or from Amazon, but these to links have some teasers:

              Gizmodo: Fortune's "Insie Apple"

              CNN: How Apple works: Inside the world's biggest startup

              Like any sucessful ompany they have some strong and weak points but it does underline (but not answer) the question of how Apple would change without Jobs at the center of the universe.

              My other question is how changes in the industry and communiations will change Apple.

              What about my Daughter's future?

              by koNko on Thu May 26, 2011 at 11:13:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks! (0+ / 0-)

                I had seen excerpts from the Fortune article a few days ago somewhere or other, probably on Google news.

                Accountability is a wonderful thing. I've worked in places that had it, and places that didn't. I always felt more useful in places that had it. I never rose to the levels where reasons didn't matter, though.

                Moderation in most things. Except Reactors. IFR forever!

                by billmosby on Fri May 27, 2011 at 05:16:27 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

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