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View Diary: CA-36: Second runoff slot hangs in balance as absentees loom (75 comments)

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    nimh

    The problem with your scenario is that inherent in it requires a lot of extra assumptions no including the the highly unlikely one you're starting out with in order for two Rs to advance in a super blue district.

    1. It assumes that the two Republicans will have roughly equal support between themselves. It's certainly not out of the question, but it's not a given either.

    2. It assumes that the Democratic field is likely going to have a relatively even split amongst themselves. What I mean by this is that it almost requires the bottom 15 Democrats to average 1% of the vote between themselves and for there to be very little deviation among the top five Democrats.

    3. Elaborating on point 2 some more, let's assume an electoral break-down of 60% D and 40% R for our purposes. In a 20D vs 2R situation, the bottom 15 Democrats would probably have to get a combined 15% of the vote, and the next two Democrats up would have to get at least 10% of the vote combined, and the remaining three Democrats would have to have to have close to equal support among themselves.

    Basically, even if your implausible situation comes to pass, it's still a lot more likely than not that a Democrat advances to the run-off.

    Politics and more Handle name DGM on Swing State Project

    by NMLib on Thu May 19, 2011 at 12:02:40 PM PDT

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