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View Diary: NY-26: Siena shows Hochul up 4, Davis lagging (214 comments)

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  •  I would still be honestly suprirsed if Hochul (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Ckntfld, Bharat, nimh, knickelbein5, MichaelNY

    wins this race. I think Hochul is going to make it close, but this district is admittedly heavily Republican. I don't want to get my hopes up either. I think she has good chance of winning, but I'm not sure she can cross the finish line.

    Davis's support will probably collapse further. I expect that a large of share of his voters, sensing that Hochul could win, will vote for Corwin holding their nose. As this weekend passes some GOP voters who have been flirting with either Davis or Hochul will come home. As in an election the "partisans" usually come in the final weekend.

    I think Hochul is the best chance Democrats have had in perhaps decades of winning. She may do it. I could be too pessimistic in my predictions, though I still Corwin eking this out. The district is just too Republican in my opinion.

    Hochul may very well win. But for the reasons above I wouldn't assume she wins either.

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