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View Diary: NY-26: Siena shows Hochul up 4, Davis lagging (214 comments)

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  •  Teabaggers to the Dem? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    It is hard to believe that anyone who was disposed to support Davis would move to Hochel.  It seems more likely that the center, such as it is, might move towards Hochel while the far right moves towards Corwin and abandons Davis.  I think that Corwin will win in the end because I cannot believe that a Democrat could get even a plurality in this district.  If Corwin wins then the GOP will trumpet their success and spin it as proof that America wants the Ryan plan.  But they know that the money they were forced to spend here is gone, and we suspect that doubling down on the Ryan plan could hurt them in 2012.  I think that is the best we can hope for in NY26.

    Liberal, Democrat, Atheist, Socialist, Communist, and Fascist. I'm the whole package.

    by docterry on Sat May 21, 2011 at 10:09:30 AM PDT

    •  well, I've talked to a Davis supporter (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      COBALT1928, bythesea, itskevin

      who was a registered Democrat, so they exist.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 10:16:53 AM PDT

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    •  It makes sense, in this case, because (9+ / 0-)

      Jack Davis was the Democratic nominee here in 2006. He nearly won too, losing 52-48. So it wouldnt shock me that there was a significant number of Dems for Davis.

      •  yes (7+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, ArkDem14, TofG, itskevin, Matt Z, LordMike, jncca

        Also his big issue is protectionism, which has been used more by Dems than by Reeps in recent years.

        Re the poll, the sample was split 41R-35D which sounds plausible for an R+6 district but may be shaded D given that the area is ancestrally Republican. I would put this race at tossup/tilt D but it will probably come down to which side is better organized to get their vote out.

        SSP poster. 41, Dem-leaning Ind (-0.25, -3.90), CA-5

        by sacman701 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 10:46:52 AM PDT

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      •  Davis was also the Dem nominee in 2004 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        getting 44% that year. In both races, he was running against incumbent Rep. Tom Reynolds. Davis did really well in both races, so it wouldnt surprise me, especially initially, if he had a lot of Dem support in the race(before Hochul really started campaigning).

    •  my take on Davis to Hochul voters (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, TofG, itskevin, David Nir

      I think much of Davis early support was from the older segment of the electorate familiar with, and possibly having voted for Jack Davis in the past.  These older voters have swung dramatically against the GOP due to the Ryan Medicare to vouchers plan.  They know vouchers are not health care.  So as the negative media bombardment by American Crossroads and Tea Party America has shaken the Davis voters loose, they are over-represented by older voters determined to defend Medicare.

      Meanwhile Hochul's surge in the polls clearly began with her attack on Corwin's support for the Ryan budget which was followed by Corwin doubling down in defense of Ayn Rand economics.  

      Then came lackeygate where Corwin's campaign manager was caught lying in connection to the GOP staged Jack Davis temper tantrum that went viral on U-tube.  The local Conservative radio hosts began blistering the Corwin campaign for her "Nixonian" tactics.  

      The result of the above political calculus is of the 11% of the electorate that has shifted away from Jack Davis, 9% fell to Hochul and 2% to Corwin.

      The narrative of this campaign i feel amply explains why Davis eroding support is falling to Hochul.  Karl Rove is so mindlessly glued to his America is a conservative nation mindset that he could not see why the Davis poll numbers were so high in the first place.  Sucks to be Turdblossom this time :)

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Sat May 21, 2011 at 11:01:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup, Hochul's now winning older conservaDems (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, TofG, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

        And it looks like most of Davis's remaining support is probably via older Republicans who oppose the Ryan plan.

        For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

        by andyroo312 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 01:46:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe not that direct (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Re: The result of the above political calculus is of the 11% of the electorate that has shifted away from Jack Davis, 9% fell to Hochul and 2% to Corwin.

        Just wanted to say that the sum may not be that straightforward. It could easily be that a greater share of the Davis vote than that went to Corwin rather than Hochul. That could be the case if Corwin, in turn, lost some of her own voters, presumably older ones, to Hochul because of the Medicare issue and the campaign shenanigans.

      •  What percentage of the electorate (0+ / 0-)

        really knows about the Ryan plan? We know about it here, but I hesitate to draw conclusions about how much people who aren't politics geeks know about it. Any poll numbers on that?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun May 22, 2011 at 12:26:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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