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View Diary: NY-26: Siena shows Hochul up 4, Davis lagging (214 comments)

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  •  I really don't see your worry (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh, MichaelNY

    I honestly don't. Not only is it awkward to draw a map from Syracuse to Plattsburg, but you're basically tossing together some very disparate areas.

    More than that, it's overkill. St. Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton counties are the core of the district, and they've gotten to where they are overwhelmingly Democratic in most every Federal election where a competitive Democrat is running. What's more, I feel Jefferson county is probably heading a similar direction, and that Owens ability to pull off narrow margins there is the first step in bringing it on board.

    Add in most, (all but a small southern portion), of swingish Oswego, then all of Essex, (Democratic leaning), and Washington, Warren, and the Democratic-leaning northeast-to-central portions of Saratoga, and you have a district that's approximately 54-45 Obama, (about a two point improvement), and which omits the most Republican friendly territory, (Lewis, Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton), in exchange for more swingy territory that has shown itself to be more open to voting for a Congressional Democrat, and you don't have that gross violation of regions of interests that you're suggesting.

    The whole Syracuse to Plattsburg idea has been tossed around and I think people don't realize how bad it is. By not doing that, you can then create a strongly Democratic-leaning Onondaga-Cayuga-Cortland-Tompkins district, (with that 32k dab of southern Oswego).

    Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

    by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 02:34:27 PM PDT

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    •  If Democrats were in complete control, I'd agree (0+ / 0-)

      But we're going to see an incumbent protection plan most likely, as Republicans control the state senate. And since Beurkle is a freshman and her district is fairly easy to dismantle, I'm guessing hers will be the one to go. And since the easiest place for Democratic Syracuse to go is the 23rd, that's where it may well end up. The only other Democratic districts in the area are Hinchey's, and that one already has a nasty finger into Ithaca, so extending it even further north seems unlikely, Slaughter's, which will be mostly centered around Rochester and won't go all the way to Syracuse, or Paul Tonko's, which is likewise situated in the Albany-Schenectady area and won't go that far west.  

      If Democrat's were drawing the map all by themselves, I would agree with you, but there's no way that Republicans in the Senate would agree to drawing Beurkle into a even more heavily democratic seat while simultaneously shoring up Owens.

      •  I think they will (0+ / 0-)

        Why do I think this? Because their slim, paltry Senate majority is the only thing keeping them relevant in state politics. And in order to have any shot at maintaining that majority, they need a massive Republican gerrymander.

        With Democrats controlling both the Governorship and with a massive majority in the State House, Senate Republicans are already outflanked on this issue. If Cuomo and Sheldon, (I believe), play hardball, they should be able to get the Senate Republicans to swallow a Democrat-friendly map that gives Hochul and Higgins 54.2% Obama districts, (under my surprisingly neat, orderly map that respects regional interests and simply looks pretty), and Slaughter a 59.4% Obama district. (Just talking western tier here).

        The districts eliminated would be Chris Gibsons and Gary Ackerman, (so it's not a total Democratic gerrymander) , and the map, under my plan, makes Reed, Grimm, King, Hanna and Hayworth all significantly safer, so I think, a plan like my own, is a reasonable map for Republicans. If they have any sense, they'll take it. They should know already that they have no business holding a Syracuse based district these days, particularly not with a strong conservative like Buerkle, so why risk a court-drawn state senate map in order to protect someone like her?

        Basically, shore up the Dems, shore up the Republicans, draw Buerkle into oblivion, those are the goals I see State Dems as having.

        The only other problem I have with what you're saying is that logistically it's simply a mess. Basically you have to take in the western half of Oswego, and then it becomes this long tendril-esque district that reaches down and grabs the city of Syracuse proper. And it's a terrible fit for the rest of the district. The rest of the district is relatively rural, and poorish. To toss it in with a fairly vibrant, urban city like Syracuse makes no sense. The affect would be to, I believe, likely send Owens into oblivion in the form of a primary challenger, and to push the northern tier of the county back into the Republican party; they'd have to do that in order to get representation and express their interests in a Syracuse-Democrat dominated district. So frankly, it's a disastrous idea for Democrats on all fronts.

        Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

        by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:04:46 PM PDT

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        •  And where does Gibson's district go? (0+ / 0-)

          I'd like to see your map, just out of curiosity, just too see where the Republican counties South of Albany go. And Washington and Warren Counties... Renesaelaer (sp)... all have to be put somewhere and they can't risk endangering Hinchey, or conversely, Hayworth with Dutchess County.  

          Also, is it worth giving up the State Senate just for one Congressional seat? Important state issues like Marriage Equality should be taken into consideration. Allowing the GOP to gerrymander the state senate to their liking makes it that much harder for progressive reform to be pushed through at the state level, and I'm not sure that Sheldon Silver OR Governor Cuomo want that...

          •  I don't think either of those (0+ / 0-)

            characters are that interested in progressive reform. And basically, the way I see it, is that Republicans can't really gerrymander the state much more, and they might even make a dummymander. I say give them the chance to shoot themselves in the foot; our odds of taking the state senate are 50/50 regardless, probably even better than that with Obama and Gillibrand at the top of the ticket, no matter what kind of gerrymander Republicans cook up.

            Gibson's district was already a sprawling snake transpersing almost the entire length of the state. It's quite simple. The Essex, Washington, Warren and part of the Saratoga county portions go to the 23rd. The conservative areas of Saratoga county go to Hanna's district, which is now a central NY lump rather than a gerrymander, and the southern areas of Saratoga county go to Tonko. His district also takes in all of Reneslasser, (or whoever that ridiculously complicated county name is spelled), and the most heavily Democratic portions of Columbia county, and so remains about 57% Obama, and I'd say 55-56% Kerry; an area very hard for any Republican to ever win because of the rather solid baseline for Democrats in Albany and Schenectady.

            Like I said below, Hinchey's district remains a vote-sink, but now in a slightly different area. It takes in all of heavily Democratic western Duchess county, leaving the conservative leaning eastern portion to Hayworth, who also gets the more conservative leaning eastern portion of Columbia county.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:25:11 PM PDT

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          •  Look for yourself (0+ / 0-)

            Photobucket

            Well that apparently cuts half of the map off, but you get the gist.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:00:08 PM PDT

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            •  This map (0+ / 0-)

              Very clean.  I appreciate that.  It's similar to what I'm envisioning in that it:

              1) Returns a LaFalce-style district while collapsing Slaughter into a more condensed district.
              2) Gets rid of Buerkle cleanly through the ballot and not redistriciting
              3) Gets rid of someone from the Lower Hudson through redistricting (I usually push Gibson and Hayworth as they are freshmen who live near enough to do so.

              My ignorance of the lower Hudson prevents me from saying whether this is ugly or truly necessary.  In WNY, I don't understand why Genesee County is divided three ways.  I would have divided it two ways and swapped out districts with Wyoming County so that was divided two ways too.

              •  Eliminating a Lower Hudson district (0+ / 0-)

                isn't really fair is it? NY-19 grew the second fastest of any district in NY. Meanwhile, Western NY grew much slower, with NY-27 and NY-28 actually losing population. I'm not necessarily against eliminating a district there on principle, but it seems odd to talk about fairness and communities of interest then reduce the influence of a place that's been growing quickly (relatively speaking).

                21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Sun May 22, 2011 at 09:29:00 AM PDT

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                •  NY's redistricting (0+ / 0-)

                  Every upstate district will ultimately have to go south and/or east.  The Long Island ones will have to go westward.  To keep the map looking clean, the seat has to come from the Lower Hudson; the irony of that is that's an area with fast growth.  

                  In 2020, WNY will probably have to lose a seat.  I can imagine a Buffalo core, a Rochester core, and a Syracuse core, and one to 1.5 districts of the territory in between.  right now, I still see two districts in the territory in between those cities.

                  •  Can't really "keep" a map looking clean (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin

                    if it looks ugly to begin with. That's why I don't necessarily think the map will look clean. Just looking at districts like NY-17, NY-22, and NY-28, it's obvious to me that Albany doesn't care about things like communities of interest or clean-looking borders. I guess the one wild card is how serious Cuomo is about not gerrymandering.

                    Still, it's possible to eliminate a WNY district. Let's say NY-26 for the sake of argument, according to the Census it has 674,804 people. If you give population to the surrounding districts (NY-27, NY-28, NY-29) until they're at target, NY-26 is left with 426,519 people. Now let's say you give NY-29 the rest of that, leaving it 426,519 people above target. You give NY-25 enough of that for its target, you have 377,681 surplus people. This goes on and on until NY-15. I might draw this on Dave's App later just to show it's possible.

                    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                    by sapelcovits on Sun May 22, 2011 at 10:54:12 AM PDT

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        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          does it make sense to stick in Poughkeepsie with Binghamton and Ithaca? Didn't stop them from doing it.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:15:12 PM PDT

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          •  They had a much stronger position (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in 2002. They held the Governorship then, things were looking good post 9-11, and they had a fairly large, stable State Senate majority.

            And while my map removes Ithaca from Hinchey's district, it does keep Binghampton and in the same district Poughkeepsie, which is kind of necessary because that district occupies the south-central space between north NY and the Western tier, and NYC. It gained the Democratic votes in Rockland, (which is intensely politically divided, 80% McCain precincts right beside 80% Obama ones), and stayed essentially the same political, though it still isn't pretty.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:18:16 PM PDT

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        •  Cuomo (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Has vowed to veto any gerrymander by either party. It could just be aiming for a bargaining position on other stuff, though.

    •  You mischaracterize some of the district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Owens doesn't have the ability to pull off narrow margins in Jefferson. He lost it 50-45 in 2010 and 48-46 in 2009 (unless you meant ability to narrowly lose, but Obama lost it narrowly as well, and Owens lost by a bigger margin in 2010 despite doing better than in 2009).

      Also, I wouldn't call those three North Country counties "overwhelmingly" Democratic. In 2009, Owens won St. Lawrence 56-38, Clinton 57-39, and Franklin 52-45. In 2010, he won St. Lawrence 56-40, Clinton 55-42, and Franklin 54-40. The fact that his margin shrunk in two of them aside, it's not even that different from Kerry, who won St. Lawrence 55-43, Clinton 52-45, and Franklin 52-46 and still lost the district 51-47. We can't necessarily rely on those counties to carry us to victory.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:14:21 PM PDT

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      •  I'm well-aware of that (0+ / 0-)

        but the trend is definitely in our favor, and Owens was hampered by the fact that Republicans picked a sane, sensible business conservative in Doheny and an environment that had become even worse for Democrats, that is the explanation for why his margin shrunk slightly.

        I think Obama's 57-60-60 margin in those three counties is more indicative of what a competitive Democrat will get in a normal competitive environment, which makes it very difficult for any Republican to win a district based around them in a neutral environment. The same with Essex. Whether Washington and Warren counties continue going the way of the rest of this area and of Vermont remains to be seen.

        In any case, in my shifting of the district, it grew 2 points more Democratic, and dropped the areas that Owens did worst in and that are the most ancestrally Republican. It'll be competitive, but as long as Owens runs good campaigns, I don't think Democrats have anything to worry about. In the meantime he'll continue to help build up the local Democratic party apparatus, narrow the voter registration gap, and accelerate the districts Democratic trend.

        Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

        by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:05:36 PM PDT

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        •  If you have hard evidence that the area is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          trending our way I'd like to see it. And your explanation about Doheny being more palatable than Hoffman is weakened by the fact that Owens did the same districtwide in 2009 and 2010 (48%).

          Certainly, adding Warren and Washington to the district would help it slightly, but what do you about Gibson? You could eliminate him, but that means you're not eliminating Buerkle, which means she's stuck with Syracuse. If Republicans have to eliminate one of their own, I bet they'd be better off eliminating the flukey one whose district is anchored by a 59-40 Obama county, rather than one whose district only narrowly voted for Obama. That way at least they don't have to worry about defending Buerkle in a D+ district every two years.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:17:53 PM PDT

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          •  The problem is where do (0+ / 0-)

            Buerkle's votes go? And nobody's going to go for a disgusting district that puts Owens in a Plattsburg-Syracuse tendril that violates every imaginable community of interest.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:43:04 PM PDT

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            •  Like I said, they already have a district (0+ / 0-)

              like that.

              As for your question...Owens' district is about 50,000 people short of its target. Hamilton, Madison, Lewis, and the district's portion of Oneida and Fulton are about 130,000-ish people. Add that to the current deficit, you need to add about 180,000 people. Syracuse is about 145,000 and the other ~35,000 would come from the surrounding area to connect it to Oswego county. As for the rest of her district, it depends on the result of the NY-26 election, but you could theoretically give it to NY-24, NY-26, NY-28 (if you make it Monroe-only), or NY-29.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:29:51 PM PDT

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          •  I eliminated Gibson (0+ / 0-)

            out of convenience, nothing more. His district was just very easily to dismantle in a neat and orderly fashion.

            And Owens got a little over 49% in the initial election.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:43:52 PM PDT

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          •  Proof (0+ / 0-)

            Gore, while winning New York by a 25 point margin, won St. Lawrence by only 12 points, (compared to Obama's 16 point margin that he received while winning the state by a similar margin to Gore), and he only won Franklin and Clinton by 7 point margins, (compared to Obama's 22 and 23 point margins, again, while winning the state to a similar raw margin as Gore). Gore also lost Essex County, by 5 points, while Obama won it by 11. Obama won the state by 26, Gore won by 25. Furthermore, Gore got 42% in Warren, and 40% in Washington, both counties that Obama won and that even Kerry improved in.

            What I say about Jefferson County is more my gut feeling that the Hoffman fiasco and the tea party is going to send it and its moderate Republicans into the Democratic party, especially since its culturally so similar to St. Lawrence and the above counties, and it's also in an area that depends on government spending for its economic livelihood.

            Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:49:52 PM PDT

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            •  One election does not a trend make (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and I still take issue with your characterization of the counties as "overwhelmingly" Democratic. Owens didn't even win Franklin by double digits in 2009! They are Democratic-leaning, sure, but I think you exaggerate just a little bit.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:19:05 PM PDT

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            •  Also (0+ / 0-)

              your Gore numbers are a bit deceiving because of how well Nader did. If you add in the Nader numbers, Gore got 46% in Warren and 45% in Washington. Certainly Obama improved upstate vis-a-vis Gore (at the expense of backsliding in Long Island), but it's a while before these places are reliably Democratic further down the ticket. Remember, there are quite a few Republican state legislators representing upstate districts that Obama won by 10-ish points.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:23:49 PM PDT

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