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View Diary: NY-26: Siena shows Hochul up 4, Davis lagging (214 comments)

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  •  You mischaracterize some of the district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Owens doesn't have the ability to pull off narrow margins in Jefferson. He lost it 50-45 in 2010 and 48-46 in 2009 (unless you meant ability to narrowly lose, but Obama lost it narrowly as well, and Owens lost by a bigger margin in 2010 despite doing better than in 2009).

    Also, I wouldn't call those three North Country counties "overwhelmingly" Democratic. In 2009, Owens won St. Lawrence 56-38, Clinton 57-39, and Franklin 52-45. In 2010, he won St. Lawrence 56-40, Clinton 55-42, and Franklin 54-40. The fact that his margin shrunk in two of them aside, it's not even that different from Kerry, who won St. Lawrence 55-43, Clinton 52-45, and Franklin 52-46 and still lost the district 51-47. We can't necessarily rely on those counties to carry us to victory.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 03:14:21 PM PDT

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    •  I'm well-aware of that (0+ / 0-)

      but the trend is definitely in our favor, and Owens was hampered by the fact that Republicans picked a sane, sensible business conservative in Doheny and an environment that had become even worse for Democrats, that is the explanation for why his margin shrunk slightly.

      I think Obama's 57-60-60 margin in those three counties is more indicative of what a competitive Democrat will get in a normal competitive environment, which makes it very difficult for any Republican to win a district based around them in a neutral environment. The same with Essex. Whether Washington and Warren counties continue going the way of the rest of this area and of Vermont remains to be seen.

      In any case, in my shifting of the district, it grew 2 points more Democratic, and dropped the areas that Owens did worst in and that are the most ancestrally Republican. It'll be competitive, but as long as Owens runs good campaigns, I don't think Democrats have anything to worry about. In the meantime he'll continue to help build up the local Democratic party apparatus, narrow the voter registration gap, and accelerate the districts Democratic trend.

      Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

      by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:05:36 PM PDT

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      •  If you have hard evidence that the area is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        trending our way I'd like to see it. And your explanation about Doheny being more palatable than Hoffman is weakened by the fact that Owens did the same districtwide in 2009 and 2010 (48%).

        Certainly, adding Warren and Washington to the district would help it slightly, but what do you about Gibson? You could eliminate him, but that means you're not eliminating Buerkle, which means she's stuck with Syracuse. If Republicans have to eliminate one of their own, I bet they'd be better off eliminating the flukey one whose district is anchored by a 59-40 Obama county, rather than one whose district only narrowly voted for Obama. That way at least they don't have to worry about defending Buerkle in a D+ district every two years.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:17:53 PM PDT

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        •  The problem is where do (0+ / 0-)

          Buerkle's votes go? And nobody's going to go for a disgusting district that puts Owens in a Plattsburg-Syracuse tendril that violates every imaginable community of interest.

          Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

          by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:43:04 PM PDT

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          •  Like I said, they already have a district (0+ / 0-)

            like that.

            As for your question...Owens' district is about 50,000 people short of its target. Hamilton, Madison, Lewis, and the district's portion of Oneida and Fulton are about 130,000-ish people. Add that to the current deficit, you need to add about 180,000 people. Syracuse is about 145,000 and the other ~35,000 would come from the surrounding area to connect it to Oswego county. As for the rest of her district, it depends on the result of the NY-26 election, but you could theoretically give it to NY-24, NY-26, NY-28 (if you make it Monroe-only), or NY-29.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:29:51 PM PDT

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        •  I eliminated Gibson (0+ / 0-)

          out of convenience, nothing more. His district was just very easily to dismantle in a neat and orderly fashion.

          And Owens got a little over 49% in the initial election.

          Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

          by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:43:52 PM PDT

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        •  Proof (0+ / 0-)

          Gore, while winning New York by a 25 point margin, won St. Lawrence by only 12 points, (compared to Obama's 16 point margin that he received while winning the state by a similar margin to Gore), and he only won Franklin and Clinton by 7 point margins, (compared to Obama's 22 and 23 point margins, again, while winning the state to a similar raw margin as Gore). Gore also lost Essex County, by 5 points, while Obama won it by 11. Obama won the state by 26, Gore won by 25. Furthermore, Gore got 42% in Warren, and 40% in Washington, both counties that Obama won and that even Kerry improved in.

          What I say about Jefferson County is more my gut feeling that the Hoffman fiasco and the tea party is going to send it and its moderate Republicans into the Democratic party, especially since its culturally so similar to St. Lawrence and the above counties, and it's also in an area that depends on government spending for its economic livelihood.

          Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

          by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:49:52 PM PDT

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          •  One election does not a trend make (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and I still take issue with your characterization of the counties as "overwhelmingly" Democratic. Owens didn't even win Franklin by double digits in 2009! They are Democratic-leaning, sure, but I think you exaggerate just a little bit.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:19:05 PM PDT

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          •  Also (0+ / 0-)

            your Gore numbers are a bit deceiving because of how well Nader did. If you add in the Nader numbers, Gore got 46% in Warren and 45% in Washington. Certainly Obama improved upstate vis-a-vis Gore (at the expense of backsliding in Long Island), but it's a while before these places are reliably Democratic further down the ticket. Remember, there are quite a few Republican state legislators representing upstate districts that Obama won by 10-ish points.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:23:49 PM PDT

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