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View Diary: NY-26: Siena shows Hochul up 4, Davis lagging (214 comments)

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  •  Proof (0+ / 0-)

    Gore, while winning New York by a 25 point margin, won St. Lawrence by only 12 points, (compared to Obama's 16 point margin that he received while winning the state by a similar margin to Gore), and he only won Franklin and Clinton by 7 point margins, (compared to Obama's 22 and 23 point margins, again, while winning the state to a similar raw margin as Gore). Gore also lost Essex County, by 5 points, while Obama won it by 11. Obama won the state by 26, Gore won by 25. Furthermore, Gore got 42% in Warren, and 40% in Washington, both counties that Obama won and that even Kerry improved in.

    What I say about Jefferson County is more my gut feeling that the Hoffman fiasco and the tea party is going to send it and its moderate Republicans into the Democratic party, especially since its culturally so similar to St. Lawrence and the above counties, and it's also in an area that depends on government spending for its economic livelihood.

    Truth becomes fiction when the fiction's true; Reality becomes illusion where the unreal's real. -Cao Xueqin

    by ArkDem14 on Sat May 21, 2011 at 04:49:52 PM PDT

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    •  One election does not a trend make (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and I still take issue with your characterization of the counties as "overwhelmingly" Democratic. Owens didn't even win Franklin by double digits in 2009! They are Democratic-leaning, sure, but I think you exaggerate just a little bit.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:19:05 PM PDT

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    •  Also (0+ / 0-)

      your Gore numbers are a bit deceiving because of how well Nader did. If you add in the Nader numbers, Gore got 46% in Warren and 45% in Washington. Certainly Obama improved upstate vis-a-vis Gore (at the expense of backsliding in Long Island), but it's a while before these places are reliably Democratic further down the ticket. Remember, there are quite a few Republican state legislators representing upstate districts that Obama won by 10-ish points.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Sat May 21, 2011 at 07:23:49 PM PDT

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