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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 5/23 (343 comments)

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  •  The only candidate that would come close (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, tietack

    is Matheson. And even then, a Matheson/Chaffetz matchup would be a tossup at best.

    •  But that's a huge, huge (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, tietack

      shift towards us. I figure that Obama's winning a blowout nationwide, people like Sherrod Brown and Tim Kaine are in Lean D races at worse, which means that we can marshal the resources necessary to drag someone like Matheson over the finish line.

      •  Is Matheson even interested in the Senate? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        I thought he wanted to be Governor like his daddy more.

        23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

        by HoosierD42 on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:04:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        Worth noting, though, that one of the Obama campaign advisers said today that they're expecting a close election unless the Republicans nominate Palin or Gingrich. But I don't see how any of the Republicans aside from Palin really generate enthusiasm and big-bucks fundraising at the same time in the general election. Romney is well-connected but loathed by the conservative base; Rep. Paul or Herman Cain would whip up a lot of Tea Party fervor but Wall Street and K Street would probably just sit the election out.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:08:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Where was this said? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, Christopher Walker

          I'm not sure we'd see a blowout forming until well into 2012, short of some unexpectedly good economic news (i.e. 500,000 jobs created each month for months on end), if only because the craziness of some of these people isn't that obvious to everyone.

          On that note, check out this article from The New Republic on Pawlenty's chances at getting the nomination. It describes how he is caught between a rock and a hard place trying to place catch up with Romney, specifically in regards to fund raising, and I think a lot of applies to the general if he's the nominee. I think there's a fairly big chance he's wounded at the beginning because he's so far behind in the fund raising game, even if he does get a nice boost from online donations once he's nominated. If that is the case, it'll be harder for him to align his campaign with the rest of the party apparatus, given the head start Obama will have had and the work he did last time, or so I suspect anyway. Even if the bump is larger than we might imagine, he can't make up for lost time, making building any campaign infrastructure more expensive, if not impossible. And that's before we get into his general underwhelming personality.

        •  Romney (0+ / 0-)

          would actually probably be a better fundraiser than Palin. A lot of wall street republicans are scared shitless of her.

    •  You honestly believe that? (0+ / 0-)

      I'd put a Chaffetz-Matheson Senate matchup at Likely R with the end results being something along the lines of 57-43% Chaffetz.  There is no way they're electing a Dem to the United States Senate, not even against a nutter.  We're better off having him run for re-election unless his seat gets turned even redder.

      •  I said "a tossup at best" (0+ / 0-)

        It would require a lot of stars to align for Matheson to actually win.

      •  The chances (4+ / 0-)

        that Utah will elect a Democratic Senator are about as high as the chances that Massachusetts will elect a Republican Senator.

        http://mypolitikal.com/

        by Inoljt on Mon May 23, 2011 at 01:57:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I would argue far less likely (0+ / 0-)

          MA is D+12, UT is R+20. Massachusetts has a recent history of GOP gubernatorial wins. Utah has nothing comparable from what I recall.

        •  No it's not (0+ / 0-)

          Massachusetts has shown time and again that they will elect republicans statewide, though less frequently in recent years.  They're practically owned the MA Governorship for two decades or so.  

          When was the last time any Dem at all won statewide in Utah?  I think a Matheson family member ran for the Governorship a few elections ago, many thought it would be competitive and in the end he lost in a landslide.

      •  It's not that far-fetched (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        A poll from January showed Matheson only trailing Hatch by 48-41.  Substitute Chaffetz for Hatch and that's probably another couple of points for Matheson.  Chaffetz would still likely win, but Matheson could definitely make it a race.  It would take a tremendous GOTV in Salt Lake City, a lot of money, and possibly a cross-over endorsement from someone like Bob Bennett, Chris Cannon, or maybe even Orrin Hatch himself.  Chaffetz was a campaign manager and chief of staff for Huntsman, so his endorsement would be unlikely.  It would require all of the dominoes to fall our way, but I guess it's still possible.

        •  You do realize half of Utah are Republicans? (0+ / 0-)

          If the GOP nominee garners merely 80 percent of the party vote, it's over.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Mon May 23, 2011 at 05:31:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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