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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 5/23 (343 comments)

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  •  Perhaps (3+ / 0-)
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    drachaCRO, ArkDem14, DCCyclone

    You're right that if he stumbles in any in Iowa, it's game over.  Maybe the problem is that for every candidate they have, it is difficult to see an easy path to the nomination.  Maybe it will be Romney, but damn it seems like everyone dislikes him.  I just can'd see a lunatic like Cain or Bachmann winning the nomination -- but the craziness of the GOP has suprised me before.

    •  They hated McCain (1+ / 0-)
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      He still got the nomination. And I'm not sure if there is the same antipathy there for Romney. Money will play a large factor. Unless Mitt is upended in NH I forsee that being key to his nomination by Super Tuesday against however emerges as his main challenger, maybe Pawlenty after an Iowa win, maybe one of the longshots catching fire after some surprise showings.

      •  i agree about McCain/Romney (0+ / 0-)

        McCain had positions that were anathema to the GOP primary voters, but by 2008, he was familiar and his negative positions were familar and not so grating.

        Romney is in the same position in 2012.  He has the same advantages that most "next-in-line" candidates have in GOP primaries...more advanced organization, more name rec and more money.  Pawlenty is a favorite of prognosticators since he is seen as someone with very few negatives, but does he really have any positives that will allow him to push past Romney?

      •  I don't think Romney gets more than 35% in NH (1+ / 0-)
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        It might be enough for him to win the state, but it won't be an improvement on his 08 performance and will just serve to highlight his electoral weakness

        •  Oh, I think Romney's capable of more than that (0+ / 0-)

          The religious right candidates (Bachmann, Palin, Santorum, Cain) won't muster a shred of traction in NH - at best, they'll combine for about a fourth of the primary vote. Gingrich will bomb, too, and Huntsman's likely supporters are probably already in the Romney camp. Pawlenty might well surge in NH via an Iowa win, but he'll need to have reached the Top 3 before that if he hopes to catch Romney. I actually think the real dark horse in NH - don't laugh - would be Giuliani. The polls which have bothered to test him typically find Giuliani polling 2nd or 3rd to Romney there. If Romney implodes, Pawlenty rights a right-wing campaign and Huntsman has no money, Giuliani could sweep in and stack his chips on the center-right there.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at and

          by andyroo312 on Mon May 23, 2011 at 11:02:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  There is more hatred toward Romney than McCain (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, dc1000, NMLib, Inoljt, askew

        Romney draws far more intraparty antipathy than McCain ever did.  He's got the well-earned flip-flop image that McCain didn't have.  And while McCain seemingly imploded due to immigration, that was not as potent as health care reform is today.  Romney is in very deep trouble there, because unlike immigration reform which went nowhere, Romney signed a bill into law that is anathema to his party, and Obama based much of the federal law on Romney's plan.  So the hostility is much more intense.

        There was a significant bloc of Republicans who sincerely admired McCain.  There is no such bloc for Romney.  If he's the nominee, it's because he's just what's left, even though no one is happy about it.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 11:25:50 AM PDT

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        •  I'm not so sure about that (0+ / 0-)

          The establishment was behind Romeny in 2008. I well remember watching Hannity blast away at McCain on any number of issues while claiming Romney had seen the light and was a true conservative. He had tactic support from the Bush family. Immigration not as important as health care? Open for debate I think.

          •  Indeed, conservatives loved Romney in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            drobertson, LordMike

            He was viewed as the most plausible right-wing alternative to the "liberal" Giuliani and "unpredictable" McCain. Ann Coulter even endorsed him.

            For daily political commentary, visit me at and

            by andyroo312 on Mon May 23, 2011 at 01:11:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That was an illusion (0+ / 0-)

              Romney was hammered as a disingenuous flip-flopper, and it stuck.  Yes there were some conservatives in the noise machine who backed him, but they were unrepresentative of most conservatives, which the early caucus and primary results proved.  Romney was the runaway frontrunner in the first 2 states and fell apart, illustrating that he wasn't really the conservative choice at all.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 06:58:05 PM PDT

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        •  i simply don't agree (0+ / 0-)

          mccain's carefully cultivated "maverick" image was created by him poking conservatives in his party on a variety of subjects - immigration and finance reform in particular.  they hated him for that.  he won the nomination because he denied his previous positions and he was a good soldier supporting bush in 2004.

          even though romney's bill in MA is something that GOP primary voters don't like, he has not antagonized or lectured them for it.  he has assiduously courted them.  he was a good soldier for mccain in '08, and he is more familiar than all the other guys.

          i'm from MN and i hate pawlenty deeply, but i can see why he has been having trouble energizing anybody.

          •  Romney pisses them off more than McCain (1+ / 0-)
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            It doesn't matter if Romney has never been as ascerbic as McCain had been.  That's not good enough to make him "less hated."  All that matters is that Romney has flip-flopped on everything imaginable for purely politically expedient motives.  Rank-and-file and intelligentsia alike hate him for that far more than they ever hated McCain.  

            McCain, for his part, was always more conservative than Romney.  His surrender on immigration reform was his only policy reversal, and it was one the base demanded.  He never did back down on campaign finance reform.

            And again, McCain had a genuine following in the Republican Party, a base of loyal admirers.  Romney has no such thing.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 06:44:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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