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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 5/23 (343 comments)

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  •  Hillary isn't running, period. (0+ / 0-)

    She's burned out and done.  She wants a calmer life in her golden years.  She says so all the time.

    Again, if Obama is reasonably popular toward his end, I can easily see Biden getting elected President.  The demographics will be only that much more daunting for Republicans, the nonwhite vote easily will be 30% or more by 2016.  At some point this is going to make it very difficult for Republicans even under what used to be favorable circumstances.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:04:21 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see the vice president winning the nom (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, Christopher Walker

      He was an also-ran in his previous runs for president, and I think Vice President Quayle has disintegrated the myth of the sitting vice president walking to his party's nomination.

      Vice President Biden will be 74 in 2016, he's well liked but not really taken all that seriously, and Democrats like Sens. Warner and Gillibrand and Govs. Cuomo, Schweitzer, Malloy, and O'Malley will sure have something to say about it.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:11:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  i think it's more (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, sulthernao

        like G HW Bush. i've always considered obama the democratic reagan:

          -replaced unpopular incumbent
          -poor economy
          -looking to win re-election handily
          -willing to compromise, but still liberal/conservative
          -very popular with the base, but with appeal to centrists

        Biden is Bush 41

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:13:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup, Biden is Bush 41, not Quayle (0+ / 0-)

          Biden is broadly respected.  Quayle was not.  And being the VP for 8 years has given Biden the stature he lacked in 2008.  Further, he actually was one of the heavyweights in 1988, but the pseudo-plagiarism attack sunk him.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:27:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  With all due respect... (0+ / 0-)

          That doesn't make Vice President Biden anything. He's a punchline on late-night shows and he's overshadowed by a lot of lower-ranking people in Washington. He's a nice guy, but I don't see him clearing the field, and against a younger, more dynamic, knowledgeable candidate (and Sen. Gillibrand and Gov. O'Malley both come to mind here immediately), he's going to look old, silly, and a bit slow.

          Let's be serious here. If he were elected and served two terms, as we want any Democratic president to do, he would be over 82 years old by the time he left office.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:44:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  There have been no Shermanesque statements (0+ / 0-)

      from her. I think she'll be in it, and that the nomination will be hers if she wants it.

      •  She's said "absolutely not"... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, sulthernao, NMLib

        Multiple times and continues to express exasperation about even being asked. That seems Shermanesque to me.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:40:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup, she's clear as a bell she won't run. (nm) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, NMLib

          nm

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:51:36 PM PDT

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        •  I think it was something like (0+ / 0-)

          "absolutely not interested," which, given her role as SoS, is what I'd expect her to say, even if she does have hope of running in the future.

          My money's on a run. And I think she'd be formidable!

          •  I'm sorry, but to me... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NMLib, DCCyclone, askew

            It sounds a lot like you're saying, "She said no. I think that means yes!"

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 09:04:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Then why agree to be SoS in the first place? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            It really is a horrible place to launch a presidential run from, if she had really wanted to run again, she probably would have stayed in the Senate or run for governor of New York, as SoS she simply loses out on too many political contacts, and frankly makes it a lot more awkward to run, even after leaving the administration after a year.

            Politics and more Handle name DGM on Swing State Project

            by NMLib on Mon May 23, 2011 at 11:59:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  She won't be SoS after 2013 n/t (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY
              •  So? (0+ / 0-)

                It's still an awkward position to try to run from, as unlike pretty much every other candidate who is going to run, she's not in any position to curry favor either with the primary electorate or with politicians in a position to help her among the electorate.

                Even if she's out of Obama's administration in 2013, the fact that she'd have to building those connections almost immediately to have any chance (unlike, say, Joe Biden who would have already been building them behind the scenes since the start of the Obama administration) makes it even harder for her to run.

                And speaking of Joe Biden, if he runs, he probably takes a lot of Obama's people with him and while he won't get the explicit backing of Obama (presidents stay neutral in competitive primaries), and Biden plays well to the types of people Hillary Clinton would need to win.

                Politics and more Handle name DGM on Swing State Project

                by NMLib on Tue May 24, 2011 at 11:10:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I dont' think (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  she will have any problem building up connections from her last Presidential run.  She's been SoS, not in hiding.

                  If you don't think those same people loyal to Clinton will flock to her again, you're crazy.  Believe me, if she wants to be President, Joe Biden is not going to stop from trying.  And if it's true that they end up splitting votes, then you have nothing to worry about -- we'll see a fresh face running in 2016.

                  •  Another Clinton run (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    would probably be the fastest campaign ramp-up in history.

                    And unlike NMLib, I think it would work to her advantage NOT to have an elected or government office at the time. It would enable her to focus full-time on building the campaign - and she wouldn't need to take any tough votes that could be used against her. She'd also be able to create at least a shadow of a distance between herself and the president, which could be helpful if there's any controversy swirling around him when 2016 rolls around.

                    I really didn't mean to touch off a big debate in the comments here. I just believe that she may run in spite of her suggestions to the contrary. If that's "no means yes," according to some comments above, then so be it. It wouldn't be the first time someone in politics has seemed to change their minds.

                    The announcement could go like this: "I had every intention of retiring when I left the SoS post last year, but after hearing from so many voters and former supporters, I've decided there's too much at stake NOT to run, including the protection of many of President Obama's signature achievements. Health care, in particular, is of utmost importance to me, and I'd like to do everything I can to make sure the system works - for everyone."

                    And then she'd be off to the races!

        •  the fact that you (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          recced Caped Composer's "no more old timers" post I think shows you're more anti-Clinton than anything else, which is why you are so adamant that she is not running.

          The facts are that she always wanted to be president and likely still does.  There is a very simple explanation to her saying multiple times she will not run.  Because any hint of it would be a distraction and would prevent her from doing her job the best she can.  The media would go crazy with it.

          Remember when Obama's numbers were sagging and people started hinting at a challenge from Hillary in a primary?  There was nothing to suggest she would ever do anything like that, nor were there any rumors floating around about it.  Now imagine if she actually didn't rule out running for election again.  It would be a shit storm of media attention.

          But here is the bottom line.  She loves campaigning.  She loves meeting and listening to people.  She loves politics in general.  And she's a natural politician.  Nothing will convince me 100% that she is not running until the 2016 Democratic field is set.

          It makes sense for her to leave her job as Secretary of State in Obama's second term,  take some time off, get refreshed...allow rumors to swirl about her candidacy, and then announce her intentions to run for President.

          I understand the need for someone new, but I also want to keep a Democrat in the White House.  The Republican field will be strong and I don't think we could nominate a stronger candidate than Clinton.

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