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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 5/23 (343 comments)

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  •  Meaningless, as key number is... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Bharat, NMLib

    ...87% say they have "no idea" who they'll vote for!

    This when alternatives are "definitely decided" and "leaning" toward someone.  Those categories combined only 13%, and definites only 4%.  But that only 9% will even claim to be "leaning" toward someone tells you how soft Romney's support really is.  He could implode instantaneously the second one or more other candidates gain popular momentum in the state.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:25:44 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      If Giuliani gets in and Huntsman gains traction, I think that hurts Romney badly.

      A lot of pundits are starting to predict Pawlenty looks like the likely nominee. Maybe I'll think so if he crests above single digits in any poll. I think he has a huge problem with his unimpressive fundraising and relative lack of charisma.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:47:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney-slayers not revealed until month out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        That's what happened last time, even as late as Thanksgiving 2007, Romney was the runaway frontrunner in both Iowa and NH.  This with both states voting in early January, 5-6 weeks later.  Only in December did Huckabee and McCain make their respective moves upward in polling in those states.

        In a weak field, especially with so many unknowns, voters keep their powder dry until very late.

        So if Pawlenty is lingering in the single-digits in Iowa even as late as Christmas, I still won't be surprised if he wins the caucuses in early February (assuming no change in the calendar).

        That 87% is what makes the whole thing so unpredictable.  It's easy to look at Romney as the runaway frontrunner in NH yet again, but he's in the exact same boat as last time.  It's stunning to me that even given the option of just saying they "lean" toward a candidate, not even having "decided," still 87% choose "I have no idea."  That means Romney's support truly is nothing more than name rec.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon May 23, 2011 at 07:57:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  AND Romney's still at 32% (0+ / 0-)

      He should've have built on his 08 support by now if he was really the frontrunner

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