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View Diary: NY-26: Lessons from Tuesday night (117 comments)

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  •  Umm. OK. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    "One of the primary articles of faith in the Republican community this morning is that Jane Corwin was done in by the spoiler effect of having Tea Party candidate Jack Davis on the ballot. Republicans like Karl Rove, and even some pundits like Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report made the "GOP vote got split" argument after Hochul's victory.

    The problem is that an analysis of the results, coupled with the final polls in the district by PPP and Siena, undermine that argument. The baseline assumption being made by both Rove and Wasserman was that the entirety of Davis' support would have bled to Corwin. "

    But isn't this essentially the argument that is often made as to why Gore lost Florida in 2000, because Nader took all his votes away?

    •  Nader's voters were more clearly (6+ / 0-)

      aligned with Gore than with Bush, and Gore only lost Florida by 537 votes, while Nader got 97,488 votes. Nader's votes would have only had to go for Gore less than 51-49 for Gore to have won.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed May 25, 2011 at 09:41:46 PM PDT

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      •  Are we sure, of any, of this? (0+ / 0-)

        How do we know that Nader's supporters would not have voted for Bush?

        If the Florida vote was expected to be so close, why did we not hear Nader ask his supporters to vote for Gore, if in fact, as you said, "Nader's voters were more clearly aligned with Gore"? Is it really clear?

        •  Well, Nader was clearly a left-of-center candidate (1+ / 0-)
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          LordMike

          Are you going to argue that Gore wasn't a clearly more attractive choice for left-of-center voters than Bush?

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Wed May 25, 2011 at 10:44:42 PM PDT

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          •  Not having voted for Nader and not having spoken (0+ / 0-)

            to anyone who did, I don't think I can say much. However, I get the impression Nader's voters were not generally aligned with either of the major political parties. It certainly is curious how many voted Nader in Florida.

            •  I'm sure (1+ / 0-)
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              MichaelNY

              if Nader had been removed from the ballot, then plenty of his voters would have stayed home. But a good chunk would have voted, and like I said, Gore would only have had to win them by a narrow margin to win Florida.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Thu May 26, 2011 at 08:35:26 AM PDT

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