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View Diary: Illinois Congressional Map Analysis, By a Chicagoan (94 comments)

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  •  Lipinski's district (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    monkeybox, tietack, MichaelNY

    is slightly unusual, since it's currently a mix of Hispanic neighborhoods in the east and working-class white neighborhoods in the west. They dropped some Hispanic precincts from the district, probably to protect Lipinski from a more liberal (or Hispanic) primary challenger, but if the Hispanic growth continues to spread west, Lipinski's district could get more Democratic over the next decade.

    Otherwise, I do think 12-6 is the most likely outcome. I don't think that IL-08, 10, 11, and 17 are completely out of reach for the Republicans, but it would be very difficult for them to hold any of the four. IL-13 is probably a tossup leaning towards Republican retention unless Democrats end up with a strong recruit.

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