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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 6/7 (306 comments)

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  •  This is where the media get annoying (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, jj32, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Jumping all over this in the same way people jumped on Gallup closing up even though three times now the collapse as been temporary. 50-40 approve today. These dates are over the weekend, the same days basically Gallup found 47-45. Interesting to me Obama is at 50% against everyone except Romney.

    •  Romney's only real strength (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      is the perception he is a good businessman and would do better on the economy. From what I understand, a lot of what Romney's company did was buy failing companies, and fire a bunch of people, and turn around and sell them. That might be how things work in business and how Romney made money, but dont know if it's a great selling point for job creation as a president. Secondly, MA was 47th in job creation when he was governor. So even if he had job creating skills, they dont seem to have translated to his time in government. These are things the President needs to mention. And I imagine many of Romney's GOP opponents will be mentioning them as well.  

      •  He's benefiting from the myth that (4+ / 0-)

        being a businessman gives you some sort of unparalleled advantage in understanding the economy. It doesn't, but even if it did, it's not as if he was running a restaurant or a lumber supply store or something. He was a corporate guy.

        Anyway, it's entirely possible he can get by on that, but I doubt Obama will let him. He's going to have to walk a fine line between describing the usual stuff, like lower taxes, and something that captures the imagination of anyone who isn't on the hard right, like infrastructure investment. It's a tough job, and that's before we even deal with any health care stuff.

    •  Noticed that about Gallup (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Also, Rasmussen has Obama at 49%, pretty much much where has been for like a month in Rasmussen, when you average things out.  

      •  Nate observed recently (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        That Rasmussen's stability is odd and that the shifts that do occur have no correlation with the news.

        •  This was exactly what exposed Research 2000 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

          R2K's DailyKos weekly polls had the same kind of stability.  And it was a statistical study of the R2K weekly polls submitted to Markos for his attention that started the ball rolling on outing them as a fraud.

          I learned something about polling I didn't know from that episode, that honest and accurate samples in a frequent tracking poll have more volatility than you might think, and too much stability is fishy.

          Rasmussen has been following the same suspicious path, really stubbornly sticky numbers without regard to game-changing headlines to which ordinary voters really do pay attention.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 07:34:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I trust WaPo, but trial heats were head-scratching (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Romney was the clear outlier among the GOPers, everyone else was in a similar ballpark with each other and far back from Obama.

      Romney routinely outpolls his rivals vs. Obama in most polling, but not with that stark a contrast.  This is the only poll that's ever had Obama breaking 50 against everyone else but then actually losing to Romney.  And this with only 5% undecideds, this far from the election, when Romney hasn't really been in the forefront of the news at all, all year.

      On the rest of the numbers, I read one tweet that stated that the poll by coincidence was in the field during a stretch when a lot of bad economic news was in the headlines.  Unemployment shooting up to 9.1 for May, the second straight monthly rise, was headline-making where ordinary people would notice it and frown.  And it was surrounded by other bad news all week.  So that would easily explain the uncommonly bad numbers.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 07:39:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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