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View Diary: OK-02: Dan Boren to retire; Brad Carson to run (151 comments)

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  •  Lean R seems pretty appropriate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    although I think if we're leading the generic ballot by 2006 proportions then Carson will win.  Unfortunately I would much rather have Boren run even though he's way, way to my right, because he had this seat for life.  As long as he votes for a Dem speaker I couldn't blame him for his other votes in an R+20 district.  Carson probably couldn't afford to vote with us on major legislation if he won anyway.

    •  Likely R... (6+ / 0-)

      The reaction against Obama has accelerated Oklahoma's rightward shift more than any other state.

      Perhaps more importantly, however, Carson was running under the 'old paradigm' of Oklahoma politics in 2004. Until the middle of this decade, the rural Eastern half of the state was a reliably Democratic stronghold at all levels of state government and considerably bluer in federal elections. Now, we're realigning with the rest of the region in so far as our rural areas are becoming permanent Republican strongholds as our city's become more and more important to state level Democrats. With the exception of some Tulsa exurbs, this district will remain largely rural and definitely encroaches the least on the state's two main metro areas. As Republicans make historic gains at the state legislative level throughout this district, I definitely expect them to be favored in a Congressional election, especially in a Presidential year.

      "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:12:53 PM PDT

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      •  But then (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        What sort of credible Republican candidates are there?  IIRC, the Republican bench in eastern Oklahoma is still thin... and if they run a candidate from the Tulsa area you risk alienating a lot of rural voters.  So basically you're probably looking at Brad Carson, Former Congressman and Senate candidate, vs. Some Dude.  I'd say that's more like a tossup.

        27, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

        by TDDVandy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:30:41 PM PDT

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        •  Good point, but.. (7+ / 0-)

          in 2010, Boren only managed to get between 56 and 57% of the vote against a some dude veterinarian who raised less than $50,000. While 2010 was a terrible year, I don't think 2012 will be much better (possibly worse) with Obama at the top of the ticket (this is Oklahoma, sadly). The Republican bench is thin but it expanded exponentially in 2010. Some of the most rock solid (D) seats were picked up by Republicans for the first time since statehood (Josh Brecheen and Mark Allen in the Senate...Rusty Farley, John Bennett and some others in the House).

          If I was Matt Pinnell, the chairman of Oklahoma Republican Party, I'd be recruiting State Representative George Faught right about now. Since 2004, he has represented an ancestrally Democratic district that includes the more well-to-do portions of Muskogee. He's super religious right but is tight enough with the business wing of the party to exacerbate an emerging rift between the establishment and the Tea Party.

          "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat -8.25, -7.54

          by dem4evr on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:58:38 PM PDT

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          •  56% in 2010 is quite an accomplishment (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Matt Z

            for a Democrat in that kind of district.  In Oregon our swing-seat Dems had trouble getting near there.

            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 01:25:44 PM PDT

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            •  He spent $1.8 million dollars (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Matt Z

              against a some dude who raised pennies. As the scion of a popular political dynasty who is ideologically compatible with his conservative constituents, 56-57% was at the very least unimpressive and at worst, an indication of inevitable Republican takeover with a legit challenger.

              "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat -8.25, -7.54

              by dem4evr on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 01:46:26 PM PDT

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          •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            David Nir, dem4evr, MichaelNY, Matt Z

            I do find it a bit hilarious that the Mayor of Muskogee can't run for the seat because, get this, he'll only be 24 in 2012.

            27, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

            by TDDVandy on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 02:19:54 PM PDT

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      •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dem4evr, MichaelNY

        I expect OK will have an all-GOP delegation after this.

    •  Well he didn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dem4evr

      for Nancy Pelosi.

      "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

      by ArkDem14 on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:19:14 PM PDT

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      •  Notice I said a Dem speaker (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if we're at the point where we have to worry about Pelosi being speaker by holding conservatives in line I think it's safe to say we wouldn't have someone as liberal being party leader.  If we had 220 seats I think Boren would vote for a Dem like Hoyer for speaker.

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