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View Diary: OK-02: Dan Boren to retire; Brad Carson to run (151 comments)

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  •  Spoilsport (5+ / 0-)

    Boo, Bob, Boo! 50-State Strategy. OK-2 hasn't changed much since Carson held it, which wasn't that long ago, and it's not much redder. In fact, I'd argue that Team Blue could win 3 out of the 5 seats. First would be Carson in OK-2, which, btw, is a 66-34 McCain district.

    Next up would be OK-5, the most Democratic district in the state, which went 59-41 McCain, making it a significantly bluer district than OK-2. Centered on Oklahoma City, I would think that if former Gov. Brad Henry (who's only 47) ran against OK-5 freshman Lankford, Henry would actually be favored to win. Henry won re-election as Governor with 66% statewide in 2006, and since he's from Pottawatomie County, the red Oklahoma City suburbs, I'd bet he got something like 70% or more in this district. But even a non-Henry politician would be viable--my fave would be two-term former Oklahoma County Commissioner and former state Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth, the first openly-LGBT person to hold a statewide office (which he lost 52-48% despite carrying OK-5).

    And finally, there's OK-1, which is basically the Tulsa area. It's about a point less McCain-y than OK-2. A strong Tulsa-area candidate, perhaps former OK Sec. of State and former Tulsa mayor M. Susan Savage? Maybe former Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland? Former AG Drew Edmondsen lives just outside the district, too... The point is, there is a bench and if Dan Boren can win and hold a seat that's even redder, I don't see why we can't compete here.

    Hell, run Jari Askins in OK-4 and give the whole delegation a scare, as it's not any redder than any of the other districts. Seriously, only OK-3, which was 73-27 McCain, is truely untouchable in Oklahoma.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

    by arealmc on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 01:00:12 PM PDT

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    •  True, we do have a bench (0+ / 0-)

      and our bench is arguably bigger than the Republican's bench in many areas. But to say that OK-2 is not much redder than it was when Carson held it is simply not true. It went from a 53-47 Bush district in 2000 to 59-41 Bush district in 2004. As you mention, 2008 was a complete shellacking, as the losing Presidential candidate in the state might have said. Until 2008, it was clearly the most Democratic district in the state. At the state level, it was a reliable Democratic stronghold and in federal races, it was always considerably friendlier to Democrats.

      This is a time of transition for Oklahoma Democrats. Our once rural-dominated party is becoming increasingly urban. Hell, I'd love to see Kathy Taylor or Susan Savage run for higher office back in my hometown of Tulsa. Doug Dodd's formidable campaigns last decade demonstrated that a strong candidate can be competitive against an empty suit like John Sullivan. As Democrats focus their efforts on Tulsa and OKC, I think someone like a Kathy Taylor could be competitive in OK-1. Right now, however, the rural/urban reallignment will continue and Republicans will remain the beneficiaries of this transitional period.  

      "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat -8.25, -7.54

      by dem4evr on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 01:13:20 PM PDT

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    •  Not going to disagree all that much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      v2aggie2, Odysseus

      First off, good to see you here! I wasn't sure if you were going to come over from SSP, so I'm very glad to see you did.

      The 50 state strategy is great and I'm all for it, but these are really tough districts, even if they're better for local Dems than national ones. Should the DCCC prioritize any of these seats (with the exception of Carson in OK-2, who has a shot even if I think he'll probably lose in the end) over the 40-70 odd swing seats that are out there? All of them seem to me to be more ID-1 in 2008 scenarios, only competitive when there's a bad incumbent or something. So I'll put them in a category along with Dan Burton's district, seats that Dems shouldn't win but that they could under circumstances that are quite possible.

      Also, even if I disagree with you, that was a great post. I forgot how relatively good the OK Dem bench is.

      Independent Socialist (-6.62, -4.05) and Vice-Chair of DKE Cranky Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

      by Bob R Bobson on Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 01:43:43 PM PDT

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    •  The Ryan Plan in Oklahoma (3+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY, Odysseus, dem4evr

      I wonder how the Ryan plan polls in any of these districts. That could be the opening we need. I hope the DCCC is at least considering long shot districts like this.

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