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View Diary: OK-02: Dan Boren to retire; Brad Carson to run (151 comments)

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  •  Won't miss him (0+ / 0-)

    but I'm not sure '12 will be good enough to Democrats to hold these kinds of districts.

    Now if only Mike Ross and Heath Shuler would make life easier for us in the same way....

    •  If Heath Shuler retires (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andyroo312

      That district becomes Republican right away. And if that's what you want, I don't think DKE is the right place for you. We actually want Democrats to win on this sub-site.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 12:10:46 AM PDT

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      •  Blind allegiance (0+ / 0-)

        So it doesn't matter how right-wing the politician is, as long as they have a D next to their name, they're good?

        •  Nope (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andyroo312, Odysseus

          On DKE, instead of engaging in theoretical purism, we compare Shuler to any Republican that would replace him and understand that he's better than any alternative, especially considering how the district is likely to become even more Republican in redistricting.

          If you want to engage in theoretical purism and accuse social democrats who are also realists of engaging in "blind allegiance," the front page is over there ->

          And back to elections and campaigns...

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 01:14:38 AM PDT

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        •  Every politician is assessed relative (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          andyroo312, Odysseus, Goobergunch

          To their district. If Heath Shuler is the best we can get, then he gets our support. Nate Silver had a nice chart of how Democrats vote their district. So it's a little more complicated then just "right wing Democrat." If he/she is taking some risks aligning themselves with the Democratic Party and occasionally voting with us that's sometimes enough (though admittedly I didn't shed any tears over Bobby Bright's loss).

        •  You do realize not all Democrats are progressives? (0+ / 0-)

          At this point, I must sound like a stack of broken records, but without Blue Dogs, Democrats ain't holding a majority in the U.S. House.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Wed Jun 08, 2011 at 06:05:30 AM PDT

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      •  I considered the not entirely rational (0+ / 0-)

        support for conservative Dems one of the problems of SSP, maybe the major reason I mostly stopped posting there in the past year.  (I was 'Baystater'.)   It's a kind of denial that the Democratic electorate and party evolve, that there's a definite shifting that goes on which has analyzable reasons.

        Like it or not, you're on DK now.  This kind of convo/exchange is pretty inevitable here.  This place is essentially (albeit often incoherently) about objectives of the activist and voter base, SSP/DKE was/is about politicians' careers and their gamesmanship.  I'm somewhere between the two, most interested in the shifts, the cycles, the evolutions, and unarticulated cutoff points where enough voters leave particular politicians.  I care about the instrumentality of the electorate- what it elects particular Democrats to actually do and what it doesn't permit them to do, and when it gives up or turns on particular sorts of Democrats.

        I'm of the view that Shuler and Ross are goners in November '12 anyway.  They're juicy and isolated and weak in the current climate and they're in places where careerist Republican grassroots and politicians feel ascendant and have been largely thwarted for generations.   Maybe likewise for Nicky Rahal and Jon Altmire.  (Though I think Jim Matheson survives somehow.)  Retirements probably spare the DCCC a couple million dollars they wouldn't spend on new candidates, and which will sadly only serve to keep the margin of loss around 10%.

        As for the RNCC, redistricting and the polling numbers for the Boehner majority are already bad enough that they are facing double digit losses of the neutral or slightly D-leaning seats they held onto or gained six months ago.  (I.e. those seats in New Hampshire, upstate NY, outside Philly, around Chicago and on Lake Superior, in LV and Phoenix and L.A. and San Diego exurbia.)  The internal Republican pressures to cannibalize the remaining white conservative Blue Dogs in Red districts to keep Boehner in a majority for two more years are predictably going to override the leadership's strategy to keep them around.

        •  Not sure how support for Blue Dogs is "irrational" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Again, not every Democrat is of a liberal ideological mindset. If, like many on the right, left-wingers forced upon D candidates a sort of "purity test," challenging each and every center-right member of the party, Democrats would never garner a majority in either house. Why? Because conservatives outnumber liberals by about two to one. And, all the while, through all of the party bickering, the center, which composes of a plurality of the electorate, has nowhere to go. And why should they be enthused if members of each party are merely determined to elect candidates of the far-far-left and right? Democrats should be thankful of the center-righters who continue to caucus and typically vote with the party. This, opposed to the obvious purging of liberal Republicans on the right. Democrats would be wise not become as unaccepting of centrists as the Republicans.

          For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

          by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 07:52:00 AM PDT

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        •  We shall see (0+ / 0-)

          If people continue to be upset about the Ryan plan and the economy doesn't go into the toilet but improves palpably, most of those guys will probably win reelection. And I hope they do and don't get replaced by Republicans.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Jun 09, 2011 at 11:24:00 PM PDT

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