Skip to main content

View Diary: AARP opens Social Security can of worms, tries to close it back up (43 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I took Medicare total cost as basis (0+ / 0-)

    which I would have assumed to include all parts.

    •  Parts B & D not paid from payroll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Terra Mystica

      instead being paid about 25% from premiums and 75% from General Fund. I suppose you could try to back calculate this into payroll equivalents but it would seem a difficult exercise of fairly limited utility. In any event I missed the part of your original post where you referenced any part (or Part) of Medicare as being included in your 22% number. It read to me as a description of the projected impact of Social Security in isolation.

      Per CBO we can fully fund the current SS schedule with an increase in FICA of 0.1% per year for 20 years. Which works out to couch change once you do the math especially once you apply the employer/employee split.

      In any event I would be leery about throwing around the term 'stochastic' without being rock solid as to sourcing. Particularly since the Social Security Reports did not even introduce stochastic scoring prior to the 2003 Report after people like Professor Barkley Rosser started pointing out that actual economic returns were coming in better than the so-called 'Low Cost' option that showed fully funded Social Security. Whereupon mirabile dictu new measures were introduced to show that despite the actual numbers showing that Intermediate Cost was proving way too pessimistic that you could show using stochastic measures that continued performance above Intermediate Cost were statistically unlikely. So there. This incidentally coincided with the introduction of 'Infinite Future' projections to "supplement" the traditional 75 year window and so allow actuarial gaps to almost double in percentage terms and quadruple in nominal dollar terms. The whole combination of Infinite Future and Stochastics coming into play just as the Bush Team was ramping up to sell CSSS Model 2 and its doppelganger the Posen Plan raised hurricane warning flags for those of us who were paying attention.

      Though only crazy people were raising the possibility that the Bush Administration was using cooked up data to sell policy initiatives in 2002-2003. Well excuse this Dirty Fucking Hippie for putting balsa wood drones of deadly WMD destruction and infinite future Social Security deficits into the same handbasket of bullshit. Which smell permeated the new-fangled stochastics which suffered from the same GIGO factor.

      Please visit, follow or join our Group: Social Security Defenders

      by Bruce Webb on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 11:09:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The entire point of the exercise (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Terra Mystica

        was to demonstrate that even out to extreme time horizons there are workable solutions - and that out to 2040-50 the fund is FINE.

        And out to 2075.. it is probably fine without doing a thing.

        The biggest challenge is riding the Boomer retirement wave, I think.

        That and preparing for the people living much much longer in retirement. Because despite all the rhetoric, that trend is happening.

        Thank you for the counsel in the comments above. I'll make adjustments.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site