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View Diary: NY-09: What happens after Weiner? (199 comments)

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  •  A Queens cadidate isn't a good idea. (1+ / 0-)
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    For the Democrats.  

    Essentially, the Queens side of the district is pretty solidly Democratic.  Obama won 60.6% of the vote here.  Yes, there are some right-wing neighborhoods (Rockaway Point, Broad Channel, Hamilton Beach, Kew Gardens Hills, Middle Village etc), but these are more than balanced out by the left-of-center and minority neighborhoods, like Woodhaven.  

    In contrast, the third of the seat in Brooklyn went for McCain by a 57.1% margin, meaning its almost as right-wing as southern Staten Island.  There's a lot of right-wing Brooklyn in several adjoining districts as well - it's pretty easy to end up with a 57% MCain district based in Brooklyn if you don't know what you're doing.  

    Regardless, I think the primary reason the district has swung to the right is Orthodox Jews in New York stopped voting Democratic at the top of the ticket in 2004.  I'm not sure this presages a wholesale partisan shift though, since many simply vote on Israel.  If the right candidate came forward, the voters would literally fall in line, as in many of these communities 90%+ of people vote one way or another in a given election.  

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