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View Diary: Michigan Redistricting: First Republican map is out (118 comments)

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  •  The 7th district (0+ / 0-)

    O 50.9%, M 47.3%
    Avg: D 43.0%, R 57.0%

    88.8% White

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:17:27 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      So, in other words, this is not a dummymander at all.

      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:20:29 PM PDT

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      •  They (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Seem to have most districts around 50% for Obama but he overperformed in Michigan so most of these districts are Republican. The 6th district which voted 53% for Obama is an opportunity if Upton retires though.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

        by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:22:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  . (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I ignore Obama numbers in Michigan because McCain pulled out/conceded that state. The average Dem/Rep performance is much more telling. I wouldn't even bother to contest the 6th outside of a very Dem year.

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:25:51 PM PDT

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          •  The averages (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Went 52.5% Republican.

            Even Kerry performed better, winning 51% in Michigan.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

            by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:28:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, the averages aren't good either (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              They're the 2006 state executive numbers. Democrats won the governorship, Republicans won the SoS and AG. If you're going to use the numbers in the DRA to eyeball things, take the mean of the 2008 presidential and the 2006 averages.

              30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

              by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 08:14:44 PM PDT

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          •  The 6th... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Upton has had nothing but sacrificial Democratic lambs run against him since he first won in 1986. If Democrats don't start running serious races against him with national support than they won't have a decent local baseline to work from when he retires or if they do have an extremely good cycle.

            The 6th is no more ancestrally Republican than the 7th, which Dems not only won in 2008, but also won lots of local seats in the state legislature beginning in the late 90's. Those gains may have been wiped away in 2010, but running a hard race for congress in a district like the 6th that's losing population and changing from a predominately rural, white Dutch and German lower middle-class district to a poorer, rural Hispanic and urban African-American/college district can pay dividends for races down the ballot, which in turn will lead to more competition later on at every level.

            MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

            by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:03:45 PM PDT

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          •  Also... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, ArkDem14

            This is a district that elected whackos like Clare Hoffman (who opposed mandatory polio vaccinations and water fluoridation and was basically, for all intents and purposes, a fascist) and Mark Siljander until Upton was elected. If a an extremist like Jack Hoogendyk was ever nominated by the Republicans, they wouldn't find be as openly accepted in a general election.

            MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

            by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:09:41 PM PDT

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      •  There are still a few good GOP targets (4+ / 0-)

        But this is a really bad map for Dems.  McCotter and Walberg's seats still seem vulnerable, and maybe MI-01 possible in a good Dem year with a good recruit.

    •  7th looks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      easily loseable for walberg

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:24:28 PM PDT

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    •  The 8th district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      O 52%, M 46.4%
      Avg: D 40.3%, R 59.7%

      Also, Lansing had the university turnout and if Obama only got 52% in this district...

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

      by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:24:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's because (4+ / 0-)

        That's because Livingston County has got to be one of the reddest of the larg-ish counties in the state, or at least outside of West Michigan.  So long as Lansing is attached to Livingston, we'll never have a chance.  Not knowing the previous numbers for the district, just looking at it, it looks like they actually made it more red.

      •  lost Clinton County too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The demographics of which are changing.  Used to be 115% white, now it's a bit less.  Home of the execrable alan cropsy though, one of the bigger con/pub/fundie aholes of the 90s.  He'd give rickie santorum a run for his money in the fundie department.  

        Rural Clinton county is decidedly publican country, though.  Did quite a bit of canvassing up there, so I've got a little experience with it.  Not sure it's less conservative than the Det.  exurbs though.  Too early to say much more without some data.  

        A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

        by dougymi on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 05:46:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's what I'd like to see (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dougymi, MichaelNY
          Not sure it's less conservative than the Det.  exurbs though.

          That's what I'd like to know.  I live in Ingham, and it'd be my guess that Clinton that Clinton has gotten quite a bit less red than even just a decade ago for the sole fact that the overwhelming majority of growth in the county (the fastest growing in Michigan, BTW) was in suburban Lansing, particularly Bath Township, which grew almost exclusively because of massive new student apartment complexes in the land East Lansing annexed during the decade in the county.  

          I'm not exactly sure what was picked up in Oakland County that we didn't have before.  I think Rochester Hills was picked up.  

          But, I don't know the actual numbers.

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