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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest (71 comments)

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  •  NV-Sen: Remember who got it right last year. (11+ / 0-)

    Mark Mellman (who was Harry Reid's hired pollster) constantly showed Harry Reid ahead by 5-6% from late October until Election Day. Reid ended up winning by 5.6%.

    This is why I trust him, Suffolk, and POS the most when it comes to any Nevada polling. They're the ONLY ones that picked the right NV-Sen winner last year, and Suffolk was the first public pollster to (accurately) predict a double-digit Obama blowout win in 2008 (he ended up carrying Nevada by 12.5%).

    •  New Mexico was a little bit that way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, filby

      Every pollster was predicting an Obama win, of course, but Obama outperformed the polling and by a fairly sizable margin. I think a lot of pollsters do genuinely have a hard time dealing with such large Hispanic populations, particularly one with a more recent immigrant population like Nevada (since, as memory served, the 2008 polling was further off in Nevada than it was in New Mexico).

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 10:06:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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