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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest (71 comments)

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  •  Hmm... (0+ / 0-)

    That's quite a big jump with white voters.

    On the other hand, Obama will actually need a bit less than 45% of white voters in 2012: the electorate will be less white in 2012 than in 2008.

    by Inoljt on Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 12:25:57 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  It's not that big of a jump. (1+ / 0-)
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      I have no problem at all imagining how very moderate or even more right-wing Democrats and center-right Independents would prefer McCain over Obama. But Bachmann over Obama? I don't think it's at all hard to believe that these people would vote for Obama over her or someone like her, even if it's more of a protest vote than active support.

      Also, the black population is about 16.7 percent overall, but only 12 percent of the electorate in the exit polls. If this number were to jump to, say, 14 percent, and Obama similar cleaned up like he did last time, he would need less of the white vote. If the electorate was more like 82/14/4, and Obama's percentage was 42/96/65, he'd have 50.48 percent.

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