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View Diary: TN-Pres: Obama leads in Volunteer State, according to Vandy poll (94 comments)

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  •  TN may be less racially polarized, but (12+ / 0-)

    it probably has fewer liberal or otherwise flippable whites than Virginia or North Carolina, without anything comparable in size to Northern VA's DC suburbs, Hampton Roads, or the Research Triangle.  

    So it's harder to flip on a statewide level.  It seems that outside of Nashville and Memphis, plus scattered areas of Dem support elsewhere (heavily black areas, college communities), most voters are more conservative, especially culturally, than in VA or NC so the best Democrats can usually do nowadays statewide is a Blue(ish) Dog.

    Polling like this is somewhat encouraging in that Tennessee voters aren't blindly jumping for the Republican, but unless Palin or someone else nationally unelectable is nominated I don't see Obama winning it, not that it's a must have for him.

    •  Very well said. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens, MichaelNY, Allogenes

      It wouldn't hurt to look at what it would cost to contest the state in a variety of situations, based on this poll and one follow up, if it hasn't been done already.

    •  Agreed. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Allogenes

      And actually, there aren't really any other areas of Democratic support outside Memphis and Nashville these days.  Knox County, which is the home of the University of Tennessee, gave McCain 60% of the vote and Bill Haslam got 81% of the vote there.  The only counties, other than Shelby and Davidson, that Obama carried were Haywood (majority-black rural county), Hardeman (near-majority black), Houston, and Jackson (two very small counties that have voted Democratic since the beginning of time.)  That's it.

      27, white male, TX-24 (current), TN-07 (originally), liberal-leaning independent

      by TDDVandy on Tue Jun 21, 2011 at 07:44:57 PM PDT

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      •  Knox County looks like it's been red (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Allogenes, wishingwell

        for some time. Gore lost it in 2000 by about 15 points.

        Considering that it really wasn't contested in 2008, merely being there is probably bound to help Obama increase his totals. Still, we are probably looking far more to manage the loss than actually win. I would think 40 to 42 is probably the floor in the state. But if Obama were to contest the state, which would probably only happen if Corker looked vulnerable, and get to, say, 45 or 46 percent, it wouldn't be that shocking for a Democratic senate candidate to pull out a win.

        •  Why do you expect Obama to contest a state (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          just because of a senatorial election? When do presidents do that, while running for reelection?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 02:25:59 AM PDT

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          •  I don't know the history of these things. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wishingwell, ahumbleopinion

            But I am pretty sure, or at least wouldn't be surprised, that Obama is much more focused on ground game than recent Democrats, something that is probably bound to help all Democrats. Rather than simply running ads and making a few joint appearances, he'll work on getting out the sort of voters that will be more likely to pull the lever for other Democrats.

            Besides that, I would think, given the surplus of funds he could easily haven, he'll have the ability to take some chances. There are only so many ways he could spend that money. If it looks like he and/or the Democratic senate candidate might be competitive in Tennessee (a big, big if, to be sure), then why wouldn't he spend money? I doubt his involvement there would hurt the candidate more than it would help, and while the national mood will probably determine control of the chamber more than anything, individual races can be affected by specific factors. If he's running strong but Tester or Brown or McCaskill is in trouble, perhaps winning the senate race in Tennessee could keep the body in Democratic hands.

          •  Bush visited states for GOP candidates (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            in 2004.  Obama better do the same in 2012.  

          •  I was just about to say (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I have never heard of a presidential campaign contesting a state it knows it will lose just to prop up a downballot Democrat.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 08:47:23 PM PDT

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        •  Red for centuries (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Unduna, MichaelNY

          Knox County and E. TN in general have voted Republican since the Repub party began to exist.  

          That does not mean they won't occasionally vote for a Dem.  Bredesen ran very well in E Tn, after he made a huge effort to win over the business community there.

          Right now I have a hard time seeing the state going for Obama. But people have also become annoyed and disillusioned since the last election--the Repubs promised to set the economy straight, and all they've done is go after their enemies.

          IF the Dems actually get serious about trying to run in TN, and about creating jobs--they could change the game here.

    •  Your points are valid also... (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

      When civilizations clash, barbarism wins. http://Allogenes.wordpress.com

      by Allogenes on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 06:53:45 AM PDT

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