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View Diary: TN-Pres: Obama leads in Volunteer State, according to Vandy poll (94 comments)

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  •  Knox County looks like it's been red (2+ / 0-)
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    Allogenes, wishingwell

    for some time. Gore lost it in 2000 by about 15 points.

    Considering that it really wasn't contested in 2008, merely being there is probably bound to help Obama increase his totals. Still, we are probably looking far more to manage the loss than actually win. I would think 40 to 42 is probably the floor in the state. But if Obama were to contest the state, which would probably only happen if Corker looked vulnerable, and get to, say, 45 or 46 percent, it wouldn't be that shocking for a Democratic senate candidate to pull out a win.

    •  Why do you expect Obama to contest a state (1+ / 0-)
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      just because of a senatorial election? When do presidents do that, while running for reelection?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 02:25:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know the history of these things. (2+ / 0-)
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        wishingwell, ahumbleopinion

        But I am pretty sure, or at least wouldn't be surprised, that Obama is much more focused on ground game than recent Democrats, something that is probably bound to help all Democrats. Rather than simply running ads and making a few joint appearances, he'll work on getting out the sort of voters that will be more likely to pull the lever for other Democrats.

        Besides that, I would think, given the surplus of funds he could easily haven, he'll have the ability to take some chances. There are only so many ways he could spend that money. If it looks like he and/or the Democratic senate candidate might be competitive in Tennessee (a big, big if, to be sure), then why wouldn't he spend money? I doubt his involvement there would hurt the candidate more than it would help, and while the national mood will probably determine control of the chamber more than anything, individual races can be affected by specific factors. If he's running strong but Tester or Brown or McCaskill is in trouble, perhaps winning the senate race in Tennessee could keep the body in Democratic hands.

      •  Bush visited states for GOP candidates (1+ / 0-)
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        in 2004.  Obama better do the same in 2012.  

      •  I was just about to say (1+ / 0-)
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        I have never heard of a presidential campaign contesting a state it knows it will lose just to prop up a downballot Democrat.

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 08:47:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Red for centuries (2+ / 0-)
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      Unduna, MichaelNY

      Knox County and E. TN in general have voted Republican since the Repub party began to exist.  

      That does not mean they won't occasionally vote for a Dem.  Bredesen ran very well in E Tn, after he made a huge effort to win over the business community there.

      Right now I have a hard time seeing the state going for Obama. But people have also become annoyed and disillusioned since the last election--the Repubs promised to set the economy straight, and all they've done is go after their enemies.

      IF the Dems actually get serious about trying to run in TN, and about creating jobs--they could change the game here.

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