Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 6/22 (127 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Right, but (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drobertson, stevenaxelrod

    The source of the change is not evident from those numbers.  If there is a change.  Her approval numbers are charted over time here:
    http://www.field.com/...

    Her approval rating has averaged around 46 or 48 since 2007--the likeliest explanation to me is the economic situation.  Her job approval ratings are not that different in the new poll from her usual 2008-and-after numbers:

    http://www.field.com/...

    And, if there is a change in her numbers from 2005, in the numbers you cited, she went from a +52 point margin among Democrats to a +47 point margin, but from a -17 point margin among Republicans to a -55 point margin.  (In job approval).  Among non-partisans she went from a 30 point margin to a 14 point margin.  So her approval numbers have declined much more with Republicans and Independents than among Democrats.  I'm not sure how you go from there to a "progressive discontent" explanation.  

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 09:03:49 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  DiFi hasn't always been easily reelected actually (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      In her first reelection campaign, in 1994, she almost lost to Michael Huffington, Arianna's husband in one of her earlier incarnations. DiFi won by only 1.9%--46.7 to 44.8. It may be true that by some measures she has always been more popular than Boxer, because she hews to the center and thus appeals to some independents and moderate Republicans. But Boxer has strategic campaign skills second to no one.

      I think that Feinstein is now an aging brand. Consumers are ready to consider something new. They are grumpy to begin with, with good reason, given the unemployment rate, housing market, multiple wars, etc. But DiFi will almost certainly tough it out one last time--unless she tries to give away the store on Social Security or Medicare. It's almost impossible to imagine that she won't survive the primary. And it's almost impossible to imagine that she won't defeat her opponent in the general.

      Even if the Republicans run a self-funding moneybags, as they did with oil heir Huffington, she'll win easily in what is basically a very blue state. Whitman and Fiorina proved that money can't buy you love.

      •  I think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, Zack from the SFV

        I agree with part of that.  Perhaps what's going on is that Feinstein has lost a certain amount of "soft" Republican/conservative support--people who might not have even voted for her but who didn't mind telling a pollster they liked her--thanks to the increasing polarization of the parties, the rightward turn of the Republican party, and maybe the increased emphasis on domestic over foreign issues (my impression is that Feinstein's conservative tendencies are most pronounced in criminal/war/security debates).  Then she loses (along with everyone else) an additional chunk of independents and other voters thanks to the shitty economy.  Maybe she's lost a little progressive support on top of that--but did those people like her any more in 2005 than now?  Still, I don't see any evidence that she's less popular with Democrats as a whole than Boxer is, odd as that may be.

        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 02:18:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But (4+ / 0-)

          California can obviously support a more liberal Senator, so I would not at all mind if she got challenged or replaced by someone capable who wasn't so fond of wars and jails.  I just don't see it happening this time around.  I also would love it if she retired, both because of the above and because maybe we could have the massive statewide donnybrook that we were cheated of in the 2010 gov primary.  (Even with the top two system--there could be a donnybrook just to determine who actually runs.  Maybe a behind the scenes donnybrook, but still.)

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 02:30:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Just curious, what are Boxer's campaign skills (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that are second to no one's?

        •  she knows how to win ugly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

          She went hard negative and drove Fiorina's negatives up so high that she ended up winning easily despite being unpopular herself.

          SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 10:18:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I would say that she's assertive and smart. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think Boxer's ads are tough but fair, not ugly. And her campaigns have exquisite timing. She doesn't panic at worrisome poll numbers and the hostility of the media; she waits, and then she pours it on with pitch-perfect ads.

            She's always underestimated, even on the left, which loves to emphasize the trope of her "unpopularity," and she always triumphs. She's not adorable (as, say, Klobuchar or Sanders is), but she's serious, and she often stands for something, which Dianne Feinstein is less apt to do.

            DiFi, incidentally, is undependable on domestic issues--e.g., Bush's pharmaceutical plan, which she supported. She's recently made noises about fooling with Social Security. But I imagine she'll read the tea leaves correctly and prevail. Despite my annoyance with her, I think she has gravitas and probably deserves one last term.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site