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View Diary: The Most Incredible Video of the Libyan Revolution (95 comments)

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  •  I'm pretty sure that there will be democracy in (3+ / 0-)
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    joe from Lowell, nklein, raistuumum

    Libya and that the Libyan people won't allow anyone to deny them that.

    In fact, I expect Libya and Tunisia to be close partners in the future.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:33:48 AM PDT

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    •  I'm much more skeptical of the outcomes. (0+ / 0-)

      The dynamics at play involve more than just the Libyan people and the Gaddafi regime. Saudi Arabia and its allies, among which I count the transitional council, have a vested interest in not allowing democracy to emerge. They will use all of their considerable resources to fight the outcome that Libyans gave their lives for, and there's a good chance they'll win.

      I watch the video that you posted in the diary with extreme sadness. The Libyan story is a still tragedy.

      If the people one day wish to live / destiny cannot but respond / And the night cannot but disappear / and the bonds cannot but break. -- Abu'l-Qasim al-Shabbi

      by unspeakable on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:45:31 AM PDT

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      •  It's awfully tough to enforce "vested interests.." (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ferg, Lawrence, Egalitare, nklein, raistuumum

        when you don't have any boots onna ground.

        That's a key point for me; it will be the Libyan people themselves who boot Khadaffy and set up the new leadership.  The UN action is just backing them up.

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 11:22:38 AM PDT

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        •  That's a really good point. (5+ / 0-)

          In the beginning, when the protestors were getting mowed down by machine gun fire, I was screaming and hollering for Tunisia and Egypt to send in some armoured divisions.

          That would likely have ended the conflict pretty quick, but it may have indeed also hi-jacked the revolution.

          NATO sending in ground troops would have ended things quickly, but it definitely would have meant a lost sense of ownership for their revolution.

          One thing is sure, though... they are going to have a massive amount of PTSD cases and will need to provide lots of medical services to all their wounded and traumatized.

          As for the NTC, it seems pretty clear that they want to move towards democracy:

          http://libyanfsl.com/...

          "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

          by Lawrence on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 11:46:47 AM PDT

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      •  changing of the power dynamics (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lawrence, nklein, raistuumum

        I'm not so sure the Saudis will have the same power as before the Arab Spring started. One possibility is that the new governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen shift power away from the Saudis (possibly toward Egypt because it's the largest in population?)

        I just can't see democracies - even if they turn out to be crappy, corrupt democracies - turning to the Saudis for leadership as much as the dictatorships did.

         

      •  Why would the Saudis have more juice than France? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Pozzo, Lawrence, nklein, raistuumum

        When the TNC wins, who are they going to have the most gratitude towards - a country that flew 0 missions in defense of their movement and the Libyan civilians, or the country that flew the large majority of them?

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 11:36:44 AM PDT

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        •  I expect (0+ / 0-)

          the country that has multiple points of cultural links with Libyans as well as a record of providing on the ground funding to the people who are next in line to take over power to command a boatload of loyalty.

          Would France, whose record in North Africa is one of soul-crushing colonialism and support for authoritarian regimes, use its considerable resources to counter the massive Saudi efforts in the country? I don't believe they will, and I don't expect to be proven wrong.

          As I said, the story of Libya is still a tragedy. The Libyan people will eventually overcome that. Of that I have absolutely no doubt. But they won't achieve it with this transitional council and its allies that have taken over.

          If the people one day wish to live / destiny cannot but respond / And the night cannot but disappear / and the bonds cannot but break. -- Abu'l-Qasim al-Shabbi

          by unspeakable on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 12:39:59 PM PDT

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          •  The TNC is just that: transitional (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Lawrence, raistuumum

            Each community is forming their own councils and havie their own military structures.  They have tried to improve organization and coordination across the country, but it is a grassroots movement.  Each community has its own proto-political structure developing.

            There is little to fear from the TNC drowning a nascent democracy since if they would attempt to the local councils will reject and move onto a new structure.

            That's the amazing thing about these uprisings is that they are so grassroots.

            "Now we are engaged in a great civil war testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure."

            by nklein on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 02:38:05 PM PDT

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