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View Diary: The illegality of the proposed North Carolina map (89 comments)

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  •  there are several reason to believe McIntyre loses (0+ / 0-)

    His strength in his home county of Robeson is gone.  The area he lost is mostly responsible for his margin of victory.  The Kagan and Perdue numbers were in superb Dem years.  It was a 60% Burr district last year.  Onslow County/Camp Lejeune were added.  Former marine Ilario Pantano will do very well here.

    •  Well.. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      McIntyre had a 7592 vote margin of victory in 2010 over Pantano in the parts of NC-07 remaining in the new NC-07. Onslow & Carteret are certainly not favorable territory, but unfortunately there's not a comparable race to make a reasonably direct comparison.

      So, let's look at some stats.

      The new NC-07 would have a 42% to 32% Democratic registration advantage.

      Here's how it compares to the statewide average in '04, '08, and '10 elections.

      '04 Auditor: 47% Dem vs. 50% Dem statewide - DEM-3
      '04 Governor: 55% Dem vs. 56% Dem statewide - DEM-1
      '04 President: 40% Dem vs. 44% Dem statewide - DEM-4
      '04 Senate: 44% Dem vs. 47% Dem statewide - DEM-3

      '08 Att. General: 58% Dem vs. 61% Dem statewide - DEM-3
      '08 Auditor: 50% Dem vs. 54% Dem statewide - DEM-4
      '08 Agriculture: 46% Dem vs. 48% Dem statewide - DEM-2
      '08 Insurance: 48% Dem vs. 51% Dem statewide - DEM-3
      '08 Labor: 47% Dem vs. 49% Dem statewide - DEM-2
      '08 Governor: 51% Dem vs. 50% Dem statewide - DEM+1
      '08 Lt. Governor: 48% Dem vs. 51% Dem statewide - DEM-3
      '08 President: 44% Dem vs. 50% Dem statewide - DEM-6
      '08 Pub. Instruction: 50% Dem vs. 54% Dem statewide - DEM-4
      '08 Senate: 50% Dem vs. 53% Dem statewide - DEM-3

      '10 Senate: 37% Dem vs. 43% Dem statewide - DEM-6

      Neither the Burr figures nor the Obama figures seem in line with the typical performance of this district. Last year was an anomalous year for Democrats. I'm not sure why so many people have a difficult time accepting that. Obama's performance in the NC-07 district was an anomalous Democratic performance within the state - for what should be fairly obvious reasons.

      The district has a slight GOP lean wherein Dems normally underperform their statewide vote by about 3%. It certainly does not have the heavy concentrations of either young voters or minority voters that are generally attributed to having elevated turnout due to Obama's presence on the ballot. It became 2.81% more McCain than McIntyre's current district; McIntyre received 53.68% of the vote in 2010. So, this suggests that even in such a dreadful year he would've received about 51% of the vote.

      If Democrats nominate a black liberal from Chicago they will lose this district. If they nominate McIntyre I see no reason why he can't hold on to this district.

    •  2012 will also be much better for Dems (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      McIntyre is a very good fit here and will again defeat the war criminal.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 03, 2011 at 07:05:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just accept it. (0+ / 0-)

        Besides, McIntyre is already pretty dang conservative, so it's not that much of a loss for you.

        Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jul 03, 2011 at 08:33:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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