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View Diary: The illegality of the proposed North Carolina map (89 comments)

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  •  I think his ratings (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    Almost always favor the party in power early in a cycle.  His ratings early in a cycle badly inflate incumbent candidates chances of winning.  Of course this cycle we also have redistricting, so he's holding back on many states until maps are drawn and candidates revealed.

    •  In the days before routine waves (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, roguemapper

      this was prudent.

      His methodology now seems so ten years ago!

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 04:43:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very true (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, roguemapper

        I started following politics in the late 90's.  The first few cycles I followed were 1996, 98, 00, 02 and 04.  Every one of those cycles were among the most stable elections you'll every find, with net gains/losses <10 seats for each party.  

        Since then we've had three straight cycles with major changes in both the House and Senate.  My guess is 2012 will see at least 10-15 seat Dem gains in the House, though at this point it's impossible to say this early if House control will change.  Dems need at least a mini-wave, probably with an big Obama win in 2012 to shift House control.

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