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View Diary: The illegality of the proposed North Carolina map (89 comments)

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  •  I think tossup is fine for Shuler (3+ / 0-)
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    wwmiv, KingofSpades, askew

    He's won by decent margins, so he's 50-50 to hold the new seat.  He won 54% and by 8 points in beating the incumbent Taylor in '06 and surviving the bad wave last time.  And he got 62% in his one easy run.

    Add in the fact that Obama will play hard in the state and try to get every last sporadic Democrat to show up, and every Dem in the state is helped somewhat.  This wasn't like some other Appalachian districts where Obama had no improvement over Gore/Kerry or even performed worse than them; Obama performed better here than those guys.

    The new lines knock Obama's numbers down 6 points, but take away 6 points from Shuler's worst performances to date and he's still at 48%, which is legitimately "tossup" since you can't assume he'd lose all 6 points.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 05:40:12 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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