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View Diary: Wait, what? 157k Jobs Added in June? (73 comments)

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  •  You have a trend line handy? (0+ / 0-)

    Let's see it.  Pop up the jobs numbers for the last 2 years.

    •  Here ya go. (9+ / 0-)

      I get my news from comedy central and my comedy from Fox News.

      by second gen on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:07:04 AM PDT

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      •  Interesting, doesn't quite look like (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joe from Lowell

        what I found, although I wouldn't expect it to be a perfect match, given that they're differnt views.

        non-farm payrolls.

        This one shows advances above the line, declines below, with the amplitude showing the degree of gain.

        If you notice, the trend line was fantastic between Jan 2009 and maybe August 2010 or so, but then started simply bobbling along at low growth.

        •  Bobbing along at about 200k is fair growth. (4+ / 0-)

          If you take out the oil shock in May/early June - which is now ending - we've stayed there for about half a year now.

          It's not exactly go-go super-duper growth, but I've seen where go-go super-duper growth gets us: a crash.  I hope we bob along between 200k and 300k for the next decade.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:26:16 AM PDT

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          •  I think we could do better (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            joe from Lowell, missliberties

            if they can pull the second stimulus rabbit out of the hat, or otherwise boost public sector hiring again, as opposed to Republicans doing everything they can to strip out public sector employees.

            •  If we had more Dem governors and legislatures.... (5+ / 0-)

              we would probably be seeing stronger job growth, yes, because we'd be seeing better public-sector numbers.

              Keep in mind, though, that the report Lulu linked to is private-sector job growth - which actually gives us a better insight into economic conditions, since public-sector hiring and firing is more influenced by politics than by economic reality.

              Art is the handmaid of human good.

              by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:33:44 AM PDT

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              •  I think we've got gains ahead at the state and gov (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                joe from Lowell

                levels, given the backlash to the overreaches in many states.

                But it's tough to wait so long for the elections to roll around, which is one reason I'd like to see more recalls.

              •  Thank you (3+ / 0-)
                Keep in mind, though, that the report Lulu linked to is private-sector job growth - which actually gives us a better insight into economic conditions, since public-sector hiring and firing is more influenced by politics than by economic reality.

                With Republicans at the Federal level playing brinksmanship with the debt ceiling, withdrawing support for trade agreements they once backed and GOP-run state legislatures slashing jobs at record levels (MN 23,000), it's clear that the coordinated efforts of GOP policy makers are undermining economic growth.

                State, local layoffs to hit record levels

                State and local government employment has been a drag on the economy all year, averaging a loss of 23,000 jobs a month over the past three months. Meanwhile, the private sector has created an average of 180,000 a month during the same period.

                In May, public employment shrunk by 29,000 jobs, mostly at the state and local level, while businesses created 83,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday. All told, the sector has lost 510,000 positions since its peak in August 2008.

                http://money.cnn.com/...

                They're layoffs are trending upward, while private sector layoffs are trending downward.

                The government and non-profit sector continues to dominate monthly job-cut announcements, with these employers reporting 14,755 in May or nearly 40 percent of all job cuts announced during the month. The May total was up 37 percent from April’s 10,371,

                Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/...

                This President has to create job growth that outpaces the layoff trend fueled by mostly GOP state legislatures.

                “The only thing that happens in an instant is destruction... but everything else requires time." - First Lady Michelle Obama

                by FiredUpInCA on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:00:59 PM PDT

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      •  Tough not to see the trend in that! (3+ / 0-)

        The May numbers scared me.  I was afraid they might represent a reversal from the clear trend that we see on that chart, but an increase in the rate of growth of 120k jobs is pretty clear evidence that it was, in fact, a blip caused by a variable (gas prices) that is distinct from the broader trend in the economy.

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:19:57 AM PDT

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        •  I think it's a bit early (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          joe from Lowell

          to tell.  Other views, such as the non-farm payroll one I posted show a strong discontinuity between the initial freight train trendline and the story of the last 6 months or so.

          (And, btw, I do not 'blame Obama' for this.  I agree with the view that the wealthy and corporations are doing everything they can to keep money on the sidelines, rather than hiring.  I think we can easily see that when stimulus funds were being spent, recovery actually proceeded apace, and as those funds run out, so does the trend they pushed.  We need a second stimulus to boost that trendline again.)

          •  A second stim would help short term, yes.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            virginislandsguy

            but notice that job growth continued apace after the first ran out.

            What we're seeing now is actual, secular improvement in the economy, distinct from government stimulus.  And just in time, too.

            Art is the handmaid of human good.

            by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:45:56 AM PDT

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            •  I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              joe from Lowell

              but I'll want a few more months to tell whether we're going to keep just barely capping the numbers entering the job market, or whether we're outpacing them and trending up again.

              •  Nope, I'm wrong. Not "apace." (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                virginislandsguy

                Job growth dropped off significantly, as you can see, but then picked back up to about 200,000.  That's what I meant.

                And the choice between "just barely capping the numbers entering the job market" and " trending up again" is a false one.  For months, we were holding steady at about 200,000, which is significantly outpacing the growth of the labor market.

                Art is the handmaid of human good.

                by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:02:46 AM PDT

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    •  I'm Not Finding a Chart, But Looking At News (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Roger Fox

      stories on google,

      192,000 in Feb, 290,000 in April, 38,000 in May, 157,000 in June.

      Looks like slightly above workforce growth for the last few months and bouncing around quite a lot.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:08:42 AM PDT

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      •  Actually, it's more like... (4+ / 0-)

        Strong job numbers considerably above workforce growth for an entire quarter, then a big drop in May, and now a return.

        Which is consistent with the economy finally starting to fire on all cylinders, and then an interruption from the oil spike, and the underlying momentum taking over again as prices decline.

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:16:26 AM PDT

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        •  You're rather more optimistic than I am (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          denise b

          workforce growth has been in the 120k to 150k region of late. firing on all cylinders, to me..... means 300k jobs a month which is about 1.8 million jobs per yr.

          Being down 14 or 15 million jobs means there is a long way to go.

          FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:13:38 PM PDT

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      •  150k jobs a month, to stay even. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Meteor Blades

        250k a month will add 1.2 million jobs a year. But we need 14 or 15 million jobs......

        FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:09:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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