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View Diary: Wait, what? 157k Jobs Added in June? (73 comments)

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  •  Tough not to see the trend in that! (3+ / 0-)

    The May numbers scared me.  I was afraid they might represent a reversal from the clear trend that we see on that chart, but an increase in the rate of growth of 120k jobs is pretty clear evidence that it was, in fact, a blip caused by a variable (gas prices) that is distinct from the broader trend in the economy.

    Art is the handmaid of human good.

    by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:19:57 AM PDT

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    •  I think it's a bit early (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joe from Lowell

      to tell.  Other views, such as the non-farm payroll one I posted show a strong discontinuity between the initial freight train trendline and the story of the last 6 months or so.

      (And, btw, I do not 'blame Obama' for this.  I agree with the view that the wealthy and corporations are doing everything they can to keep money on the sidelines, rather than hiring.  I think we can easily see that when stimulus funds were being spent, recovery actually proceeded apace, and as those funds run out, so does the trend they pushed.  We need a second stimulus to boost that trendline again.)

      •  A second stim would help short term, yes.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        virginislandsguy

        but notice that job growth continued apace after the first ran out.

        What we're seeing now is actual, secular improvement in the economy, distinct from government stimulus.  And just in time, too.

        Art is the handmaid of human good.

        by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 10:45:56 AM PDT

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        •  I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          joe from Lowell

          but I'll want a few more months to tell whether we're going to keep just barely capping the numbers entering the job market, or whether we're outpacing them and trending up again.

          •  Nope, I'm wrong. Not "apace." (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            virginislandsguy

            Job growth dropped off significantly, as you can see, but then picked back up to about 200,000.  That's what I meant.

            And the choice between "just barely capping the numbers entering the job market" and " trending up again" is a false one.  For months, we were holding steady at about 200,000, which is significantly outpacing the growth of the labor market.

            Art is the handmaid of human good.

            by joe from Lowell on Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 11:02:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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