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View Diary: Crunch. Terrible numbers across the board in June jobs report. Unemployment rate rises to 9.2% (285 comments)

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  •  On the positive side of things, that (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    satrap, poxonyou, farbuska, RenMin, MGross

    clever release of oil from the SPR that Obama masterminded a few weeks ago has really broken the backs of the speculators.  Heck, in my neck of the woods, prices at the pump are now something like $1.49.9 and dropping like a stone.

    I predict that when this ripples through the economy, jobs will be apopping everywheres!


    •  Put one finger in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Roadbed Guy

      the dike and .... SQUIRT...

      From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

      by satrap on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:28:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Another brilliant nonsense policy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

      by justmy2 on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:36:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, the price of oil will surely fall now... (1+ / 0-)
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      by LordMike on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:39:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why now? (0+ / 0-)

        What happened? India & China decided to stop buying it??

        We already have a large glut here in the USA, I doubt if there's anything much we can do about the situation one way or another . . . .

        •  Why now? (0+ / 0-)

          'Cos when the stock market tanks, as it is at this moment, oil prices tank with it.  Expectations of future low growth make oil futures go down.


          by LordMike on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 06:58:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  FYI (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          "India & China decided to stop buying it??"

          India's per-capita oil consumption is one of the absolute lowest in the world, about 1 barrel per person per annum, compared to a world average of 4.6, US' 22.5, China's 2.5. Among regions, after North America at 18.8 BPPPA, the Middle East has the highest per-capita consumption of 12.5, and their's and China's total consumption are rising at a far more rapid pace than India's. India still consumes only 3.7% of the global consumption for a 17.5% share of world population. Even Africa consumes 20% more oil per capita than India does, as you can see in the table below.

          Latest oil consumption data from the EIA:

          (image uploaded with .)

          •  More telling than a snapshot of (0+ / 0-)

            last year's stats would be a comparison with 5, 10, 20 years ago to get a sense of where these countries are headed.

            For example, from Wikipedia (where it is referenced):

            The use of oil doubled in China during 2000–2009.

            If this happens again over the next decade, they will be using as much as we do.  Where is all that oil going to come from?  Hint, if nothing else, this trend will keep pressure on such that the floor will not drop out of oil prices.

            About India - it seems like right now they're going hog wild into coal (it's cheaper than oil).   I don't really know enough about that to judge whether that trend will continue, or if they'll transition to something else (be it oil, renewables, or whatever).

            •  qwerty (0+ / 0-)

              "More telling than a snapshot of last year's stats would be a comparison with 5, 10, 20 years ago to get a sense of where these countries are headed."

              Rates do matter, but existing consumption values in the global context also matter, especially when the differences in per-capita consumption are so dramatic across countries (India's 1 BPPPA to US' 22.3, eg), as no one has a birth right of some kind to exclusive or disproportionately high consumption of world's natural resources. At least in theory, we're supposed to share them roughly equitably (as driven by the economic context, of course.)

              Now if India's consumption was 2.75% a decade ago (which it roughly was, as I recall) and 3.7% in 2010, it's still only 3.7%, which is both well below India's population share (17.5%) as well as small in the big picture (i.e. compared to 100%). A Change of 1% over a decade is certainly not going to contribute more than 1-2% or so to the market dynamics (over the full course of the decade!). Significantly larger demand changes (such as those of China and the Middle East), OPEC controlling production rates so as to maximize their profitability, speculators running wild have, taken together, two or three orders of magnitude more impact than the change in India's demand. Over the last two years, the price of gas doubled; are you going to tell me that 0.2% or so change in demand from India during those two years is the prime factor (as your comment implies) in that doubling of rates at the pump? It takes a gigantic stretch of reality for anyone to think that or claim that.

              Maybe a decade from now India will consume 4.7% or 5%, and that would still be well below its 17.5% share of population.

              "The use of oil doubled in China during 2000–2009. If this happens again over the next decade, they will be using as much as we do.  Where is all that oil going to come from?"

              China is an entirely different beast on economic output growth and consequent rise in consumption of resources, as they, as a determined nation, are aiming to completely dominate every other country in everything, in this context, to become world's predominant and perpetual factory. Here, their oil consumption is 2.75-3 times that of India, even though their population is only 10% or so higher than India's. China recently passed the US on manufacturing output, at around 21% of world's out put, compared to India's pathetically anemic 2% output. That's an extremely important data factoid to keep in mind on everything economics.

              "floor will not drop out of oil prices."

              That's likely true, unless the world (including, and especially, the US, of course) goes gung-ho in the renewable energy direction. China has become a dominant production player there as well, and they're procuring and stashing away the rare earths that are needed for green tech, apparently in order to ensure continued growth and dominance in that sector as well.

              "About India - it seems like right now they're going hog wild into coal (it's cheaper than oil)."

              There is and there will be some steady growth in India's coal consumption, but it's China's growth on coal use (and coal-base emissions) that I'd call way beyond "hog wild," not India's. EIA has coal use/emissions data as well. I'll reproduce (to save time) an earlier comment of mine on this:

              China is a super heavy coal consumer, but India is only a moderate-level consumer of coal.

              In 2009, China emitted a mind-boggling 48.4% of the world's coal-borne CO2 for a 19.3% share of the global population. US 14.1% (pop. 4.5%), Europe 8.9% (pop. 8.8%) and India 8.1% (pop. 17.4%). Thus, India's coal consumption is well below its share of the global population.

              On projected coal use too, while China's is expected to shoot further through the roof, India's growth in the use of coal will more at a significantly lower pace and is likely to remain well below US' coal use for a long time to come (I'll have to dig up these projected numbers. Ask if you're interested and are unable to locate authentic data yourself.)

              Here is another important thing to keep in mind. Coal is indeed a much cheaper source of energy, and poor/developing countries like India have no choice but to use some coal in their energy mix as the developmental needs of their population grow. India's extremely low per-capita GDP of $1100-1200 per person (compared to about $4K for China, $9K for the world, and $47K for the US), per year doesn't leave much dispensable money left (after meeting other even more basic needs like food) per head to depend solely on more expensive renewable energy options.

              It helps to keep these facts in mind.

              In brief: China's coal emissions are 6 times that of India, and US' some 70% higher (even though the US has only 1/4th the population of India.)

              A couple of points of advice: the situations pertaining to China and India (and, of course, that of the US) are VERY different on just about every matter there is (except that they're both gigantic nations with over a billion people each; But that's just how nations got cut up. A proximate group of smaller nations, say those of Africa, that together make up a billion people is not that different an entity from a billion each in China and India.) One needs to learn to draw the distinctions between those two countries in order to come up with thoughtful, accurate, meaningful and potentially useful ideas and views. India, when you look at its wide swaths of poor people it still has (some 600 million people are poor by poor country standards, i.e. appallingly dirt poor by our developed country standards), is quite similar to Africa on poverty and developmental matters (even in my table, they're the closest on per-capita consumption, a good case in point. India and Africa are quite similar on per-capita GDP, emissions, etc, as well), and so comparing India and Africa makes a ton of more sense than banding India with China as has become a reflexive habit in some types of commentary.

              Doing some data/numerics oriented research without preset notions, instead of simply extending some narrative one may have picked up somewhere, helps too. I did just that, and what I have found is that most of the narratives pertaining to India, usually negative in nature, or carrying negative implications, undertones or stated/unstated resentment, that we see here and elsewhere are really off the mark when one examines the facts and data closely, and I share the things I have found in my comments here whenever I can.

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