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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/8 (243 comments)

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  •  There's no feedback loop (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer, NMLib, MichaelNY

    People don't make personal economic decisions based on these statistics or their morale about the macroeconomy.  They make decisions based on their immediate surroundings.  And the sum of those personal decisions make up the macroeconomy.

    So this awful news--and it is awful--isn't going to stifle growth.  Rather, it comes down to what is really going on out there...I still think the crisis in Japan and energy prices have a lot of impact on what's happened short-run, and we'll see improvement as those effects subside.

    The longer run problem is housing.  That's what's really dragging the economy in the larger picture.  That's not going to get better for quite some more time, but it doesn't prevent the short-term job growth bursts like we had earlier this year.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 07:02:54 AM PDT

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    •  Yes, there is... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, drobertson, MichaelNY

      People do make decisions on this.  The small business owner decides not to hire 'cos the economy looks bleak from these reports.  He then cuts back on his personal spending.  A Million small business owners do that, the economy contracts even more.

      Big business does their forecast and they see the same thing, curtailing hiring for the year.  That decision won't be revisited until next year.  A 100,000 big businesses do the same thing, and it makes things even worse, which prompts bigger cutbacks next year.

      Although Geithner's "confidence fairy" isn't enough to pull us out of a recession, if the confidence fairy goes bye bye, the economy gets worse.


      by LordMike on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 07:15:50 AM PDT

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    •  It could have some effect (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      on the decisions of people to spend, but it's not going to be anything major. It wasn't as if we lost 800,000 jobs or gained 800,000--in other words, it wasn't a major move in one direction or another.

      Hopefully, though, this will encourage the administration to fight for any sort of stimulus measures at all to be part of the debt ceiling. There was word a payroll tax cut was part of the discussion. The one from the employer side, plus an extension of the one from the employee side, will hopefully be included. If nothing else, today's report should have been a slap in the face to the Obama administration that something else needs to be done.

    •  housing (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Multi-unit building is likely to pick up later this year. Apartment vacancy rates have already dropped down to normal levels, and rents are going up. Single-unit building is still a no-go zone, although the inventory is slowly being reduced along with delinquencies. Prices appear to have stopped falling, but I would not expect them to go back up by much in most areas.

      Employment is a lagging indicator and this report mostly confirms that the 2nd quarter was bad. Most of the other indicators (manufacturing, etc) picked up in June and I would expect things to get better going forward.

      SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 08:23:01 AM PDT

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      •  . (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Multi-unit building resumed in Austin about a year ago. Single-unit building in the core started back up recently, but single-unit in the suburbs is still a no-go.

        21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 08:26:08 AM PDT

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      •  Not sure if this is right for an elections thread (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drobertson, MichaelNY

        but I wonder just what constitutes a "recovery" in housing?  Much of the news suggests that we won't have full recovery until we get back to the bubble-type housing price growth of the mid-2000s, which made housing unaffordable for many middle class wage earners and eventually burst starting a takedown of the broader economy.  I don't think we need, or should have, a repeat of that for a healthy economy.

        •  housing recovery (1+ / 0-)
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          I would define a recovery as getting back to a normal number of units (enough to cover population growth given expected changes in household size) being built every year, maybe 1.3 to 1.5 million units. We grossly overbuilt in the mid-00s so the recent weakness is understandable.

          SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 10:31:20 AM PDT

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