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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/8 (243 comments)

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  •  WTF? (1+ / 0-)
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    I saw this whole discussion and no reference to what it refers to.  I looked at the business section of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press today.  The headline: "June Job Data a Pleasant Surprise."

    "A private report said businesses hired twice as a many workers as economists had expected.  Applications for unemployment benefits have reached a seven-week low."

    Now I don't know who's right or what it means, but saying that the President will definitely be reelected (because he's so much better than Romney, Bachmann and Perry) or he's sure to lose because of some economic number is obviously ridiculous.

    A ton's going to happen between now and the election.  the President has been before 40 and 60% approval for most of 3 years.  Enjoy (or bite your nails and be sick) the ride.

    Right now it looks like it will be close and there will be a lot of close Senate and house races.  Good for us...and maybe good for the nation .

    •  Maybe they're referring to the ADP (1+ / 0-)
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      payroll processor report which came in earlier this week.  For some reason, it never seems to comport with the BLS statistics; usually when one is better than expected the other is worse.

      •  Yes it's ADP, and making it harder is... (0+ / 0-)

        ...there's no pattern that ADP is consistently more optimistic or consistently more pessimistic than BLS.  They're consistent usually only in the broader trend, not in the monthly numbers comparisons.

        I think the initial jobless claims are key.  They, too, haven't been exact, but they've been a real good clue to the trajectory of unemployment and job growth, and the CW that 400K weekly is the magic line has held true.  We've had bad jobs and unemployment news ever since the weekly jobless claims climbed consistently back over 400K, after having been below that for a consistently long time.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 07:02:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The ADP report usually shows beginning of trends (1+ / 0-)
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          better than the BLS. Several months into an upturn or downturn the difference between the two reports evens out.

          Because the ADP is up and new applications for unemployment are down (down by double digits in 18 states) and key sales figures are up, the stock market drop was small and stocks inched up before the close today.

          The job market isn't good but it isn't as bad as the BLS suggests.

          •  The markets were, indeed, stunningly calm (2+ / 0-)
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            KingofSpades, tietack

            I feared drops of 2-3% in all 3 biggies.  But Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all ended up down well under a percentage point, and in fact lost less today than they all gained on Thursday.  At their worst this morning their losses were orbiting just 1%.

            But really we've been getting mixed signals every month for a couple years now, with no pattern emerging in the tea leaves to offer predictability in what to expect on jobs and unemployment when those magic numbers come out each month.

            I still believe quite confidently that things will be better a year from now.  But I keep ratcheting back my expectations, now thinking unemployment will still be in the low 8s a year from now, instead of the high 7s as I had thought earlier this year.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 08:13:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Are the markets pricing in a "deal"? (0+ / 0-)

              I think they are to some extent. But not sure bonds are safe even in the event of a "temporary" default. Which is probably why nobody believes it'll happen.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 09:23:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  They're expecting a deal, yes (3+ / 0-)
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                tietack, NMLib, MichaelNY

                The markets don't believe default will happen.

                I'm quite confident they're right.

                Boehner has made clear he agrees default would be a national disaster, and a deal must happen.  Everything he says that appears to suggest unwillingness to compromise is just posturing to coerce the most conservative deal possible.  Fortunately, contrary to the beliefs of some on the left, our President and Congressional Democrats really do have firm principles they won't surrender just to make a deal.

                By the way, Senate Dems just released their proposal, with a 1-to-1 ratio on tax hikes and spending cuts, no touching social security, and only minimal cuts, with none to benefits, on Medicare and Medicaid.

                Non-starter with the GOP, but it's the right starting point for our side in this.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Jul 09, 2011 at 10:07:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

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