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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: 7/8 (243 comments)

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  •  The markets were, indeed, stunningly calm (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, tietack

    I feared drops of 2-3% in all 3 biggies.  But Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all ended up down well under a percentage point, and in fact lost less today than they all gained on Thursday.  At their worst this morning their losses were orbiting just 1%.

    But really we've been getting mixed signals every month for a couple years now, with no pattern emerging in the tea leaves to offer predictability in what to expect on jobs and unemployment when those magic numbers come out each month.

    I still believe quite confidently that things will be better a year from now.  But I keep ratcheting back my expectations, now thinking unemployment will still be in the low 8s a year from now, instead of the high 7s as I had thought earlier this year.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 08:13:03 PM PDT

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    •  Are the markets pricing in a "deal"? (0+ / 0-)

      I think they are to some extent. But not sure bonds are safe even in the event of a "temporary" default. Which is probably why nobody believes it'll happen.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 09:23:52 PM PDT

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      •  They're expecting a deal, yes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, NMLib, MichaelNY

        The markets don't believe default will happen.

        I'm quite confident they're right.

        Boehner has made clear he agrees default would be a national disaster, and a deal must happen.  Everything he says that appears to suggest unwillingness to compromise is just posturing to coerce the most conservative deal possible.  Fortunately, contrary to the beliefs of some on the left, our President and Congressional Democrats really do have firm principles they won't surrender just to make a deal.

        By the way, Senate Dems just released their proposal, with a 1-to-1 ratio on tax hikes and spending cuts, no touching social security, and only minimal cuts, with none to benefits, on Medicare and Medicaid.

        Non-starter with the GOP, but it's the right starting point for our side in this.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Jul 09, 2011 at 10:07:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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