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View Diary: CA-36: Janice Hahn (D) leads by 8 for tomorrow's special election (223 comments)

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  •  TPM CA-36 (5+ / 0-)

    I saw that article and noticed the same thing. No polling to back up this claim:

    Expected to be a safe Democratic seat, California's 36th' District has become a heated battleground heading into Tuesday's special election.

    Glad to see some polling showing that on paper Hahn is still a big favorite.

    •  heated battleground? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I hate political journalists, for the most part.

    •  "Heated battleground" (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Eric Nelson, Curt Matlock, MichaelNY

      I haven't read that article, but I'm wondering if "heated battleground" might refer to the character and quantity of advertising and the sources and amounts of money invested?

      •  TPM spinning it (6+ / 0-)

        TPM is spinning it as more than just a hot area for politics. From the TPM Editor's Blog column:

        07.11.11 — 9:44AM
        GOP Pickup In California?

        The special election Tuesday to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA) in the CA-36 has turned into a much closer race than initially expected, with a real chance for a Republican pickup.

        —David Kurtz

        Real chance for a Republican pickup? Doesn't seem so from the polling or commentary in this diary.

        •  Thanks! I hope they're wrong. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Curt Matlock, TofG, MichaelNY
        •  I see TPM's continual slide into Huffington Post (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, itskevin

          is continuing. They seem to be pushing a lot more OUTRAGE and a lot less fact than they used to. Disappointing.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 11:37:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  TPM (0+ / 0-)

            I think that's too harsh. I'd agree there's is now more creative license taken in their headlines but overall I think they are still usually very solid in their reporting and an important site.

            •  Maybe a year ago they were, but they've (0+ / 0-)

              been following the HP model of sensational stories with little to no facts behind them. Plus, they seem to do a lot of pushing bad polls for Democrats and burying the good polls for Democrats.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 04:19:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  TPM is a mixed bag (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, Curt Matlock

                They do mess up themes in their stories, and most importantly they report polling uncritically, even Rasmussen.  It's not the best, I almost get the sense they're dropping the journalistic ball more often than before simply because of their dramatic growth the past few years.

                But I still regard Josh Marshall one of the best, and one of the more quick-witted, political analysts in America, and he alone makes the site a must-read for me.  His personal blog posts are what I always want to read.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 07:15:58 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Josh is great, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, askew

                  but there's definitely a drift toward sensationalistic coverage of polling and campaigns over there. I used to read them all the time; now I go rarely.

                  •  They still do some good reporting (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, Curt Matlock

                    They do real reporting from a Democratic perspective, and I appreciate that.  It gets buried sometimes between the more crappy stuff as you describe, but it's there.  They pursue a lot of investigative stories with quite a few turning up duds, but they've caught some pretty big fish, too.

                    But Josh's personal writings are what keep me going there everyday.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 07:26:12 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I prefer WashingtonMonthly and PlumLine (0+ / 0-)

                      over news with a Democratic perspective. I don't always agree with them, but I think they are keeping it honest. I can't say that about TPM any longer.

                      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                      by askew on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 08:48:45 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Plum Line is good but I put Greg a notch below... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera, askew

                        ...Josh.  Greg Sargent can be phenomenal and does great reporting, I think his analysis is off more often than Josh's.

                        I don't think Greg or Ezra Klein, my other WaPo blogging fave, always "get" the politics of why Obama or other Dems are doing what they're doing.  There's a method to the madness, and I think Obama's strategy most often ends up being right, and his critics wrong.

                        On CA-36, to stay on topic, I'm now thinking Hahn by 11.  The thing about the PPP poll that I can't shake is the 55% white sample.  If that's really what the electorate looks like, 55% white and 45% nonwhite, even in a special when minority turnout wouldn't be as good, then Hahn definitely wins by double digits, maybe even by 15.

                        But PPP just as easily could off an "off" composition.  Specials are hard to gauge.  PPP's toplines could be exactly right, and yet their sample composition and crosstabs way off.  That's a normal thing for them.

                        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 03:25:25 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  Just was great when he was a guy with a blog (0+ / 0-)

                    He and Eric Alterman were essential reads. Now they both seem to have vanished into thin air.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 07:58:53 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

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