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View Diary: I'm In. Are You? (275 comments)

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  •  FWIW, here's how the Dems in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, SingleVoter

    R+1-3 districts did in 2010, Dem incumbents bolded, open seats in italics:

    Larry Kissell (incumbent) won by 9
    Tim Walz (incumbent) won by 5.5
    Joe Donnelly (incumbent) won by 2
    Mark Critz (incumbent) won by 2
    Jerry McNerney (incumbent)-- won by 1
    Bill Owens (incumbent) won by 1
    Melissa Bean (incumbent) lost by 0.5%
    Solomon Ortiz (incumbent) lost by 0.5%
    Bob Etheridge (incumbent) lost by 1
    John Adler (incumbent) lost by 3
    Mark Schauer (incumbent) lost by 4.5
    Charlie Wilson (incumbent) lost by 5
    Mike Arcuri (incumbent) lost by 6
    Bill Foster (incumbent) lost by 6
    John Hall (incumbent) lost by 6
    Steve Pougnet (challenger to Mary Bono Mack) lost by 9
    Steve Kagen (incumbent) lost by 10
    Scott Murphy (incumbent) lost by 10
    Gary McDowell (open seat candidate) lost by 11
    Kathy Dahlkemper (incumbent) lost by 12
    Debbie Halvorson (incumbent) lost by 14
    Ed Potosnak (challenger to Leonard Lance) lost by 17
    Russ Warner (challenger to David Dreier) lost by 17.5
    Francine Busby (challenger to Brian Bilbray) lost by 18
    Alan Grayson (incumbent) lost by 18
    Stephene Moore (open seat  in Kansas) lost by 19
    Scott Harper (challenger to Judy Biggert) lost by 28
    Jeff Barnett (challenger to Frank Wolf) lost by 28
    Lance Enderle (challenger to Mike Rogers) lost by 30
    Charlie Justice (challenger to Bill Young) lost by 31
    Bill O'Neill (challenger to Steve LaTourette) lost by 34
    George Gaulrapp (challenger to Don Manzullo) lost by 35
    Jerry Campbell (challenger to Dave Camp) lost by 35
    R. Banciella (challenger to I. Ros-Lehtinen) lost by 38
    John Heckenlivingen (challenger to Paul Ryan) lost by 38

    Including challengers to Republican incumbents who were strong enough to survive 2006 and 2008 in such districts is extraordinarily kind to Grayson, considering they didn't get media attention, funding or anything else.

    The 19 incumbents in such districts not called Alan Grayson lost by an average of 4 points. Alan Grayson lost by 18 points.

    •  Want another metric? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem

      Here's the vote share of every Democratic incumbent in 2010, corrected for district lean (if the district is R+2 like Grayson's, I add 2%. If it's D+5, I subtract 5%).

      Grayson is bolded.

      OK 2    70.1%
      UT 2    67.3%
      MS 4    67.1%
      AR 4    65.8%
      AL 2    65.4%
      MN 7    64.5%
      IL 3    63.4%
      ID 1    62.6%
      WV 3    62.5%
      MO 4    61.5%
      PA 17    61.5%
      NC 11    60.2%
      HI 2    60%
      IL 12    59.5%
      NC 7    59.2%
      MD 2    59%
      VA 9    58.8%
      KY 6    58.6%
      CA 5    58.2%
      SD 1    57.6%
      TX 29    57.6%
      GA 8    57.3%
      NY 27    57.3%
      PA 4    57.3%
      TX 28    57.3%
      TX 17    57.2%
      NY 17    57.1%
      TX 20    56.7%
      NC 8    56.5%
      CA 16    56.4%
      MD 3    56.3%
      AZ 4    56.2%
      CA 38    56.1%
      GA 12    55.8%
      MS 1    55.7%
      CA 31    55.5%
      MD 1    55.5%
      CA 34    55.4%
      NJ 13    55.3%
      AZ 8    55%
      ND 1    55%
      CT 2    54.9%
      NY 10    54.9%
      NY 24    54.8%
      NY 7    54.6%
      CA 39    54.5%
      GA 13    54.5%
      TN 5    54.5%
      TX 9    54.4%
      IL 5    54.3%
      CT 3    54.2%
      NY 16    54.1%
      MN 1    54%
      CA 18    53.9%
      NJ 10    53.9%
      NY 9    53.9%
      TX 15    53.9%
      MD 5    53.7%
      CA 12    53.6%
      VT 1    53.6%
      NV 1    53.3%
      PA 10    53.3%
      TN 4    53.3%
      VA 5    53.3%
      MD 8    53.2%
      NJ 8    53.1%
      NY 18    53.1%
      IN 2    52.9%
      NY 2    52.9%
      CA 1    52.8%
      NY 8    52.8%
      NY 21    52.8%
      OR 4    52.8%
      CA 29    52.7%
      KY 3    52.6%
      AZ 1    52.5%
      NY 11    52.5%
      MD 4    52.4%
      CO 3    52.3%
      NY 13    52.3%
      SC 6    52.3%
      CA 27    52.2%
      IN 1    52.2%
      NY 23    52.1%
      WA 6    52.1%
      CA 28    52%
      NJ 9    52%
      OH 17    52%
      NY 14    51.9%
      PA 14    51.9%
      SC 5    51.9%
      TN 9    51.9%
      VA 3    51.9%
      CA 36    51.8%
      CA 51    51.8%
      NJ 1    51.8%
      CT 5    51.7%
      PA 12    51.7%
      ME 2    51.5%
      PA 2    51.5%
      TX 27    51.5%
      CO 7    51.3%
      NC 2    51.3%
      TX 16    51.3%
      MN 5    51.2%
      OR 5    51.2%
      TX 23    51.2%
      CA 15    51.1%
      MI 12    51.1%
      CA 11    50.8%
      IN 9    50.8%
      FL 23    50.7%
      IL 8    50.7%
      MD 7    50.7%
      CA 9    50.6%
      CA 47    50.6%
      IA 3    50.6%
      MA 7    50.6%
      GA 2    50.5%
      MS 2    50.5%
      NC 13    50.5%
      TX 30    50.5%
      GA 4    50.4%
      MA 3    50.3%
      NM 2    50.3%
      NY 5    50.3%
      MN 4    50.2%
      NY 1    50.2%
      NC 1    50.2%
      CA 43    50.1%
      CT 1    50%
      MA 6    50%
      NM 3    49.9%
      NY 19    49.9%
      OH 13    49.9%
      OH 11    49.8%
      PA 13    49.8%
      CA 17    49.7%
      NY 28    49.7%
      CA 14    49.6%
      CA 53    49.6%
      MA 1    49.6%
      ME 1    49.5%
      OH 9    49.5%
      IL 2    49.4%
      MI 7    49.4%
      NC 12    49.4%
      OH 6    49.4%
      IL 1    49.3%
      MI 9    49.3%
      OH 18    49.3%
      AZ 5    49.2%
      CO 1    49.2%
      MA 2    49.2%
      NY 6    49.1%
      CA 13    49%
      CA 30    49%
      IL 7    49%
      VA 2    49%
      CA 8    48.9%
      MO 1    48.9%
      NJ 3    48.9%
      CO 4    48.8%
      CA 37    48.6%
      FL 20    48.6%
      NJ 12    48.6%
      NC 4    48.4%
      TX 25    48.4%
      CA 10    48.3%
      FL 11    48.3%
      OR 1    48.3%
      TX 18    48.3%
      CA 7    48.2%
      MA 5    48.2%
      NJ 6    48.2%
      CO 2    48.1%
      IL 9    48.1%
      WI 3    48.1%
      WI 4    48.1%
      FL 19    48%
      WA 9    48%
      GA 5    47.9%
      NV 3    47.9%
      IL 14    47.8%
      NY 4    47.8%
      OH 16    47.8%
      CA 23    47.7%
      CA 35    47.7%
      VA 11    47.7%
      MA 10    47.6%
      NY 15    47.6%
      IN 7    47.2%
      NY 25    47.1%
      NM 1    47%
      NY 20    47%
      PA 3    47%
      WA 1    46.7%
      WI 2    46.7%
      WI 8    46.7%
      FL 3    46.5%
      MN 8    46.5%
      CA 20    46.2%
      NY 22    46.2%
      OH 10    46.2%
      IA 1    46.1%
      WA 2    46.1%
      MI 14    45.7%
      MI 15    45.4%
      AZ 7    45.3%
      IA 2    45.3%
      NH 2    45.1%
      OH 1    45.1%
      CA 6    44.9%
      FL 22    44.8%
      CT 4    44.7%
      FL 24    44.4%
      PA 8    44.4%
      MI 5    43.7%
      MO 3    43.5%
      MO 5    43.5%
      IL 11    43.4%
      WA 7    43.4%
      MA 8    42.8%
      FL 8    42.6%
      OH 15    41.6%
      PA 11    41.4%
      IL 17    41.2%

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