You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.
Posting a Diary Entry
Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as
is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.
When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.
If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.
ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.
One diary daily maximum.
Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries
that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
The DK Elections post earlier today by Steve about the Wisconsin recall election results helpfully featured a table with the results of each recall race side-by-side with the results of the 2010 gubernatorial and senate races in those respective districts. I thought I'd expand a little on that and also throw in the results of the 2011 Supreme Court elections and the 2008 federal Presidential elections in the recall districts, which DK Elections helpfully provided in yesterday's in-depth preview.
The result is this Google Spreadsheet, which compares the results of the recall races with the results of those four preceding elections in the same districts, and calculates by how much the Democratic recall candidates outperformed or underperformed the average of those four races.
There's basically three categories:
1) The Democratic candidate performed relatively strongly - or the Republican candidate weakly, of course! - in the King vs Hopper and Clark vs Olsen races. There, King and Clark did 12% resp. 5% better than the average. In King's case I think we can largely credit Hopper's scandals for that.
2) The performance of the Democratic and Republican candidates corresponded very closely to the average of those four recent races in the Pasch vs Darling and Schilling vs Kapanke races.
3) The Democratic candidate performed relatively weakly (or the Republican candidate strongly), compared to recent history, in the Moore vs Harsdorf and Nusbaum vs Cowles races. Moore and Nusbaum did 8% resp. 10% worse than the average Democratic result mentioned above for their district.
All in all it seems like Clark deserves the most sympathy. He did 5% better in his district than Kloppenburg earlier this year, and 12% better than either Feingold or Barrett in 2010 .. but it still wasn't enough.