OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

David Obey
Public Policy Polling (pdf). 10/20-23. Wisconsin voters. MoE ±2.9%. (8-12/14 in parentheses):
Russ Feingold (D): 49 (52)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 46 (45)
Undecided: 5 (2)

Tom Barrett (D): 46 (48)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 48 (47)
Undecided: 6 (6)

Peter Barca (D): 42
Scott Walker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 10

Jon Erpenbach (D): 40
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 13

Kathleen Falk (D): 41
Scott Walker (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 10

Steve Kagen (D): 39
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 14

Ron Kind (D): 41 (43)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47 (46)
Undecided: 12 (11)

David Obey (D): 42 (44)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 47 (47)
Undecided: 10 (10)

The idea of recalling Scott Walker was a pretty appealing one to Wisconsinites at the height of that state's collective bargaining madness: According to PPP, back in May, they approved of the idea of recalling Walker by a 50 to 47 margin, Walker languished with a 43/54 approval, and he lost a hypothetical recall race against Russ Feingold 52-42. August numbers showed slight retreat from that: Walker's approval crept up to 45/53, the recall was disfavored 47 to 50, and Feingold's margin was down to 52-45.

And now, as the acrimony from early 2011 is starting to slip down the memory hole, there's a little bit more retreat: Walker's approval is up to a potentially salvageable 47/51, and the Feingold margin is down to 49-46. (Generic support for the recall actually twitched upward slightly, to 48 for and 49 against.) Independents seem to be the ones who are most losing interest in a recall: Indies are against it 40 to 57 now, as opposed to 46 to 50 in August. That, of course, doesn't mean that it's time for Democrats to back down from the recall; given the closely-divided support, it'd still be a fight at the 50-yard line to turn out the bases. However, it's not looking like the easy lay-up as it appeared when Walker's overreach was fresh on people's minds.

Also, Wisconsin Democrats are running up against the same problem here that Republicans nationwide are experiencing with their attempt to reclaim the presidency: It looks like a tossup when you talk about it in terms of a generic candidate, but things start to look dicier once you start running head-to-heads with actual named candidates, most of whom are at a name rec disadvantage. The only named Democrat who prevails is ex-Sen. Russ Feingold, who has been pretty explicit about his intent to not run for anything in 2012.

Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor and the '10 loser to Walker, runs only slightly behind, while everyone else PPP rounded up—state House minority leader (and long-ago ex-Rep.) Peter Barca, state Sen. Jon Erpenbach, Madison Co. Exec Kathleen Falk, ex-Rep. Steve Kagen, Rep. Ron Kind and ex-Rep. David Obey—hangs further back trailing by mid-to-high single digits. Of that bunch, Erpenbach (the high-profile ringleader of the Senate Democrats' out-of-state flight) and Falk sound the likeliest to run, though the septuagenarian Obey also has reportedly been asking around and sounds energized.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 04:26 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.